To: Chi-X who wrote (5489 ) 11/21/1997 2:37:00 PM From: William T. Katz Respond to of 9124
Why that PR is bullish not bearish: We already knew QNTM would do something about the high-end DD business from the last conf call. Even at that time, they had said a one-time charge would be necessary to either exit or streamline the enterprise sector because that is where they are losing the money. I think any one-time charge to clear up that constant loss is quite bullish and not bearish for QNTM future. First of all, at this price, a number of things are already factored into the price; the most obvious piece being the real price competition going on in the desktop DDs, particularly the sub 3 gb market. Second, by taking this action, the company shows it is not sitting back on its behind but taking proactive steps to reduce costs. The shift to a common architecture for high-end products will allow QNTM to benefit from the efficiencies that WDC has profited from over the last year(s). WDC has executed very well, despite the lack of high-margin, high-profit, completely proprietary technology like DLTs. $35 million for a tighter ship is pocket change for QNTM. It is sitting on huge cash reserves. And keeping up with R&D will let QNTM tap into growth areas that we don't even talk about on this thread, e.g. the digital video explosion that will occur soon. With DVD and DTV, there will be a shift to digital storage of video. The real kicker, though, comes when all those MPEG-2 encoders get cheap enough for general use. Then, we'll have a truly digital replacement for the VCR. It will have all sorts of benefits: much better signal, no rewinding, easy cataloguing, additional languages and aspect ratios, no degradation over time, etc. QNTM is in a near ideal position to serve the storage demands that will occur when Joe & Jill Everybody convert to digital media. The NFR technology is just one ticket. I'm accumulating big time down here ($26-29). I think the markets could go down a little again, but there I agree with the faction that the retest of the DOW lows has already occured. Once I max out with a little of cash left for safety, I'm going to turn off the stock market channel. -Bill