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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Madharry who wrote (46449)	2/4/2012 7:44:23 AM
From: Robohogs	Respond to of 79053

Sell some of the naked calls. Premia are out of this world. Jon PS Why so certain of zero for the common? PPS Might want to combine sell of the calls with some pref which is trading at 35 cents or so on the dollar and has current yield of 22% (return would be very high if common survives since it would trade back to par). Or you can buy the bonds at 50-60 cents on dollar and with slightly lower current yields and overall returns but which should get recovery in a bk.

To: Madharry who wrote (46449)	2/4/2012 12:40:17 PM
From: Area51	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 79053

HI Madharry, FWIW (and the typical disclaimer of being wrong many times likely applies) I think ATPG is more risky to (naked) short then it is to (naked) long. If they can complete there current project by early 2Q (I believe their recent release was estimating a q1 completion) at 7000 BOE/d which would get their total production to around 31,000 BOE/d I think the current stock-holders will do very well. If they can't I think they may still have some options (restructure-debt and maintain shareholder interest). I have bought a little ATPGP recently (and paid for a significant portion by taking a loss in atpg) so I can't say I am not scared (but sometimes it pays to embrace the fear, and keep positions to a manageable size). We shall see! Probably either short or long is not a bad idea here, just watch the news closely and cover your position if the news is unfavorable for your position. Best Regards, A51