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Biotech / Medical : Ligand (LGND) Breakout! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Andrew H who wrote (11580)	11/22/1997 1:06:00 AM
From: Hippieslayer	Respond to of 32384

I don't know if this has already been posted. I haven't been keeping up with the thread lately. I've been busy fighting of some buckeyes. Here is an interesting story about the the overhaul of the FDA. Should bode well for many biotech companies. Only hope the restructuring doesn't take forever to happen. usatoday.com LGND looks pretty sick as of late. Maybe it should enter itself in one of it's own clinical trials. Later.

To: Andrew H who wrote (11580)	11/22/1997 1:14:00 AM
From: Scusami	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 32384

Hi Andy et al: A TA update on LGND. Weekly Chart - Momentum (MACD) finished the second week in negative territory after coming down from a high 7 weeks ago. When it goes negative, it usually takes several weeks to bottom out and reverse direction. We could be in for 2 to 4 more weeks of base building. Volume accumulation just completed the first negative week in 15 weeks. LGND has closed lower for 6 weeks now. The 40 week MA is at 13.90, just about where we ended the week. The lower V band is at 12 1/2 and the upper V band is at 17 1/16 based on a 10 week moving average. Daily Charts - Williams %R is at 71 after having been 80 yesterday. Anything over 80 generates a buy signal and less than 20 a sell signal. LGND has been more than 80 three times since early October. Usually such readings are coincident with bottoms when looking at past chart patterns. Relative strength (RSI) is also at a low value of 40 now. Oversold is considered to be around 30; however LGND has a lower RSI now than the prior lows of mid July and mid August. Subsequent to the prior lows, LGND advanced in price with the better move being in late August. The 200 day MA is at 13.27 (I don't know why my charting software has a different value for the 200 day and 40 week MAs.) The 200 DMA should help contain the downside risk. Stochastics fast K indicator went above the slow K and %D traces (bullish, buy signal if it continues awhile). Momentum (MACD) is almost back to neutral after having been negative for the last 26 trading days. The recent double bottom on Oct 28th and Nov 11th produced bottoms on the MACD, but the Nov 11th bottom was less severe than the Oct 28th low. This tells me the downside momentum is getting less and that the downside in price has been overdone. The directional momentum indicator +D(DMI) is still trending horizontally and has not yet indicated a bottom. It has to turn up and go above the -D component. The point and figure chart shows six reversals all holding at 13 1/2. The next upleg to 15 1/2 will make 7 reversals. Seven times 3 is 21. At 1/2 point per box, the next upleg could carry 10 1/2 points from the 13 1/2 low. Theoretically, LGND could go to the 24 area, but I'd guess profit taking will stop it short. Anyway, I still see a potential for the 20 area. The Upper V (Bollinger) band is at 14 7/8 and the lower V band is at 13 3/8 using a 10 DMA (which is at 14 1/8). AMEX BTK (biotech) index is not doing as well as the AMEX DRG (drug) index. If the DRG continues strong for awhile, I expect the BTK will have to catch up. It played catch up early this summer after several weak weeks in the bio's. Conclusion - I think we'll see a turn up from these bottom prices within the next month and higher prices within two months. Scusami PS: I attended a Michael Murphy talk today in Sunnyvale, CA. Of the biotechs he likes: XOMA, ARRS in his first portfolio, add CHIR, LGND and TRGA in second batch, and add VICL, INSV, ISIP, RZYM and GERN in the third batch.