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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: raybiese who wrote (163726)	2/12/2012 12:31:34 PM
From: Kayaker	2 Recommendations Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 206338

Why is Gasoline Consumption Tanking? More EIA data from their beta site. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out. Next monthly data March 1st. This graph shows the same monthly total gasoline sales volume drop a bit differently. Hard to believe but gasoline sales in the US are half of what they were in June 2007 and dropping like a rock. (You can draw a box with your mouse and zoom in.) Refiner Motor Gasoline Sales Volumes (select the "Motor Gasoline" check box and then click the "Graph" button) eia.gov Looking at more recent data -- "US Weekly Product Supplied" for gasoline. It doesn't show the same dramatic drop off (???) but interestingly shows a drop in Jan 2012 that we don't yet have monthly "sales" data for. So will monthly sales drop even further? U.S. Weekly Product Supplied (select the "Finished Motor Gasoline" check box and then click the "Graph" button) eia.gov Looking a monthly Exports, here I see a dramatic uptick in exports of gasoline. Makes sense if sales in the US have dropped so much. Exports (monthly) (scroll down and select the "Finished Motor Gasoline" check box and then click the "Graph" button) eia.gov Imports of gasoline are down which makes sense. Weekly Imports & Exports (select the "Total Motor Gasoline" check box and then click the "Graph" button) eia.gov This shows the recent gasoline exports increase on a weekly basis. Weekly Imports & Exports (scroll down to "Exports" and select the "Finished Motor Gasoline" check box and then click the "Graph" button) eia.gov

To: raybiese who wrote (163726)	2/15/2012 3:11:01 PM
From: Archie Meeties	6 Recommendations Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 206338

"gasoline consumption reflects recession and growth." So what should we do with the gdp, trucking, rail, manufacturing, initial unemployment claims data? There's only one response if you believe we're in a recession; the government is lying (except about the gasoline data). Confirmation Bias: The Bias to seek information that confirms your belief. Confirmation bias recipe? Belief + Emotion + data contrary to belief = Seeking confirmation of challenged belief = confirmation bias. Could also be an example of the backfire effect cognitive bias. So in this case; First believe that we're in a recession because it's repugnant to think that current politicians could contribute to an economic expansion. But wait, positive gdp after gdp , manufacturing expanding, so that can't be right. Aha! Gasoline proves that we are in fact in a recession! Same thing with the employment #'s. If you believe employment has to be bad because of lousy, disgusting policy, then no set of data will convince one that unemployment is getting better. The only possible explanation is that the government is conspiring, lying, the data is wrong, etc. Falling gasoline data will have some mundane explanation, and it will not be "austerity".