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To: Archie Meeties who wrote (163956)	2/15/2012 3:35:09 PM
From: Sweet Ol	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206338

Arch, there is a lot of truth in your supposition. There is a lot of conflicting data out there so it is easy to cherry pick data to prove your bias on the economy. Personally, I am indecisive, but leaning towards recession. There seems to be more data pointing down than up, but that is probably my bias showing. As to the our national politicians, with the exception of a small handful of them, I think they are all either corrupt, incompetent or both. Both parties included. I think it is amazing that the economy is doing as well as it is in spite of them! Each of us has to come to our own conclusions regarding the state of the economy and how it will impact our investment decisions. The Law of Large Numbers suggests that half of us will be wrong. Anyone want to bet a nice bottle of wine on the EOY GDP? Blessings, JRH

To: Archie Meeties who wrote (163956)	2/15/2012 11:14:12 PM
From: raybiese	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206338

Archie Meeties: FWIW, the quote was from the article. "Falling gasoline data will have some mundane explanation, and it will not be "austerity"." The only 'mundane explanation' that I can think of for such a sharp drop in retail gasoline consumption is the ethanol producers were draining storage before the end of blending subsidies. If so, there should be a pop in Jan/12. Perhaps others have a better 'mundane explanation'. But the data is the data... accurate, inaccurate, estimate pending revision or revised actual. In rail traffic, I did not see data confirming the gasoline data . aar.org Speaking of the AAR.... They produce a monthly data bundle of economic indicators: aar.org I cannot seem to find EIA data for retail diesel use. That is about as deep as I want to dig right now. Having conflicting data is not new. Ray

To: Archie Meeties who wrote (163956)	2/16/2012 1:38:50 PM
From: upanddown	1 Recommendation Respond to of 206338

Falling gasoline data will have some mundane explanation, and it will not be "austerity". Gasoline consumption is falling in virtually all of the 34 members of the OECD. Many countries have much faster rates of decline than the US. omrpublic.iea.org All the gasoline growth is in developing countries. No one cause but at the top of the list would certainly be aging populations, gas prices, engine efficiency, more efficient driving habits and recession.

To: Archie Meeties who wrote (163956)	2/19/2012 11:07:39 AM
From: Kayaker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206338

[[ .....There's only one response if you believe we're in a recession; the government is lying.... ]] This is a classic article by Kevin Phillips in Harper's Magazine from 2008. It details the long history of how the US government has changed and distorted economic numbers to make them look better, starting way back in 1961 with the Kennedy administration. Numbers racket: Why the economy is worse than we know By KEVIN P. Phillips May 2008 harpers.org ....The corruption has tainted the very measures that most shape public perception of the economy—the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI), which serves as the chief bellwether of inflation; the quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which tracks the U.S. economy’s overall growth; and the monthly unemployment figure, which for the general public is perhaps the most vivid indicator of economic health or infirmity.... ....Let me stipulate: the deception arose gradually, at no stage stemming from any concerted or cynical scheme. There was no grand conspiracy, just accumulating opportunisms. As we will see, the political blame for the slow, piecemeal distortion is bipartisan—both Democratic and Republican administrations had a hand in the abetting of political dishonesty, reckless debt, and a casino-like financial sector. To see how, we must revisit forty years of economic and statistical dissembling.... ....The U.S. economy ex-distortion ....The real numbers, to most economically minded Americans, would be a face full of cold water. Based on the criteria in place a quarter century ago, today’s U.S. unemployment rate is somewhere between 9 percent and 12 percent; the inflation rate is as high as 7 or even 10 percent; economic growth since the recession of 2001 has been mediocre, despite a huge surge in the wealth and incomes of the superrich, and we are falling back into recession. If what we have been sold in recent years has been delusional “Pollyanna Creep,” what we really need today is a picture of our economy ex-distortion. For what it would reveal is a nation in deep difficulty not just domestically but globally....