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Biotech / Medical : Agouron Pharmaceuticals (AGPH) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JOHN W. who wrote (2955)	11/22/1997 4:08:00 PM
From: JOHN W.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 6136

Subject: Re: 4000 dec puts Date: Sat, Nov 22, 1997 14:07 EST From: Biorich23 Message-id: <19971122190700.OAA20809@ladder02.news.aol.com> Manipulation, should not be surprising to anyone. This company is the classic example, where the proffessionals have made a ton of money at the expense of investors who would panic. The majority of the calls were sold by institutional investors/hedge fund managers.. Most options have been expiring worthless, at the expense of the small investor. The large trade and sudden decline in the stock in the final hours was most certainly the classic manipulation that we have seen by the market makers (who control the price) that desire to have the price close on expiratiion at or below the strike price. Thus all calls that were bought above 40 were worthless. This action is very suspect but has been fairly predictable with AGPH. How do you defend against this suspicious activity? of all realize that these short term moves never have a lasting effect. The value of the company always overcomes any short term pressure. The fundamentals of the company actually have improved. The question or debate on when to start antiretroviral therapy has been soundly resolved. It has been proven and endorsed by Dr. Faucci that early aggressive treatmment to support the immune system is key. The debate is over, and is now quite unthinkable to withold a PI from combination therapy. Also, it appears that dual PI therapy is being widely used, over 15% of all those taking PIs are on a dual PI regime. Although old news in a sense, further reports have emphasized the importance of adherence to prevent the much touted resistance that has developed due to the own patients non-compliance. This will further encourage the sales of the most tolerable therapies. Any PI that requires 18 pills (Fortovase) and has to be used with another PI (Ritonavir or Viracept), is certainly at a disadvantage. All of these factors suggest that nelfinavir sales should be at an all time high and will continue to increase their market share in the rapidly growing market. Looking at the IMS data for monthly/weely PI scrips confirms this and confirms thAHGPH will continue to surpass the analyst estimates. Very conservatively, 500M revenues from this product alone in the U.S. is almost certain. So how can one explain a market cap (1.1B) of Agouron that is twice as much as revenues for one of their drugs? Long term investors: First of all don't panic, and second of all take advantage of this price dip to lower your average cost. Be conservative with the margin, but also realize that a sharp move up will occur when the shorts take profits and start buying. They (a very few individuals) will most likely lock in their profits soon, if not the beggining of next week all at the same time. 50% of AGPH is held by institutions and will make it extremely hard for the shorts to buy 7,000,000 shares in this market, as long as most small investors don't painic and sell into the strength. Everday AGPH's makt share grows. New mkts, whether it be the Penn ADAP or approval in Australia, the sales growth continues and never has looked brighter.This company is at least 70% undervalued and should be considered an extreme opportunity for both long term traders and day traders.