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Politics : Mainstream Politics and Economics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sm1th who wrote (10233)	2/24/2012 10:15:12 AM
From: koan	1 Recommendation Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 85487

<<You regularly reference Einstien and relativity as examples of science and why we should believe the experts. Relativity has been verified by experiments, that is how real science works. Where are the controlled experiments by your atmospheric scientists? They can't be done. They make computer models with a few thousand variables of a poorly understood system with billions of variables and use those to project hundreds of years into the future. Until they publicly admit the flaws and limitations of their models we absolutely should not listen to them.>> What you are doing there is denying the science. Models and statistics is a proven scientific tool and taught at every major universityin the world as such.There are different kinds of science. Models and statisitcs involve probability which involves validity and reliability which can result in predictability. In fact statistics was one of the most useful courses I ever took. A simple example: Say you have three acres of corn and two different types of fertilizer. Now what you want to find out is if either fertilizer will increase yield. So you put the two types of fertilizer on each acre and leave one acre with none. Then you can run simple t tests to see if the fertilizer worked and which one worked best. If you have more than one variable you can run an analysis of variance. Models can predict. Not hundreds of years, but they can predict days and weeks and they are getting better. And they can correlate which also is a good predictor. One can also apply statistics to the rapid decline of arctic pack ice e.g. 100 years versus 700,000 to 4 million and get probability; and remember right now we are in a natural cooling trend (sun) yet the last 10 years have been the hottest in recorded history.