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Politics : Mainstream Politics and Economics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: koan who wrote (10240)	2/24/2012 10:35:05 AM
From: sm1th	3 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 85487

A simple example: Say you have three acres of corn and two different types of fertilizer. Now what you want to find out is if either fertilizer will increase yield. So you put the two types of fertilizer on each acre and leave one acre with none. Then you can run simple t tests to see if the fertilizer worked and which one worked best. Show me the similarly controlled experiment that the climate scientists have performed. I agree that models can be useful, but much of what they predicted 10 years ago has not happened, so it would seem that their models are deeply flawed. Since experimental verification is impossible, the best that they can do is observe how well their models work. So far they haven't worked very well. Not nearly well enough to justify changing the most fundamental things about modern society. They should keep modeling and verifying, but they should not be making recommendations until there is reasonable evidence that the models have useful predictive value.