A weekend with AOL
Subject: Gut nothing more
Date: Fri, Nov 21, 1997 00:40 EST
From: ASN PUB
Message-id: <19971121054000.AAA14503@ladder01.news.aol.com>
I'm reluctant to add this drivel to the board but I have a gut feeling that Nec and Idx will walk away with the INS gold.
Subject: HELP PLEASE
Date: Fri, Nov 21, 1997 01:44 EST
From: KHarrin193
Message-id: <19971121064400.BAA19460@ladder01.news.aol.com>
Could someone please give me the address of the SI board. I have followed it for months but somehow lost it tonight. When I try to bring it up I get the " Starteck Engineering " web page. Can't figure it out!! .........Thanks , KHarrin193 PS...VERY LONG IDX and staying that way.
Subject: Re: Intelligent Dialogue
Date: Fri, Nov 21, 1997 06:46 EST
From: IDX4EVER
Message-id: <19971121114601.GAA28711@ladder02.news.aol.com>
Brutus,
Intelligent dialogue is what I have been trying to get out of you for the past several months!
Your margins questions were completely addressedin the 1Q98 conference call. Randy said that gross margins on livescan (TP600) and bio-id hardware INCREASED during the past year to slightly over 50%. He expects livescan margins to remain steady while IMO we dominate livescan sales over the next 3 years. Randy expects bio-ID hardware margins to decline as others enter the market and technology decreases costs. That is why IDX is concentrating on
developing HIGHER margin software application suites.
I little homework goes a long way.
KHarrin193 - Silicon Investor address is www.techstocks.com. Then go to Stocktalk.
Subject: Pay attention
Date: Fri, Nov 21, 1997 07:09 EST
From: Brutusone
Message-id: <19971121120901.HAA01115@ladder01.news.aol.com>
I didn't ask what Randy Fowler said. Do you not understand that insiders are the biggest salesmen for their companies. I asked a simple factual question......what were the machines selling for two year ago and what are they selling for today.....
Simple question any answers......Obviously I dont know the answer nor have I listened to the conference call. Only looking for facts not sales pitches from management......
Subject: Re: Good qustion
Date: Fri, Nov 21, 1997 07:59 EST
From: Halkhave
Message-id: <19971121125901.HAA03083@ladder01.news.aol.com>
Brutusone, You wrote:
<<Also in light of non profitable business, ie. companies essentially giving away machines, bidding for contracts at a loss, how are the pricing trends and prospects in the industry.
Is this perhaps part of the problem with IDX. Are they making money on services and anyone have any idea on what kind of money they are making on servicing these systems.>>
I do not know how much the machines sold for two years ago, however, IDX4EVER's earlier response is, indeed, a response to your question. Product margins this past quarter were 54%; service margins were in the low twenties (24%, I think). Only in the last several quarters has product margins reached the 50% goal of the company which was surprised at the higher number this quarter.
Also, you are right that this information comes from the company itself, and I understand your comment to suggest that we cannot trust that information. If that is your position, then I doubt that we have a basis on which we can talk. I am basing a lot of my investment decision on the financial information given by the company. You are right that if they are lying to me, I have a problem. My assumption is that they are not
lying.
-Hal
Subject: Re: Pay attention
Date: Fri, Nov 21, 1997 08:04 EST
From: Club doctr
Message-id: <19971121130401.IAA01900@ladder02.news.aol.com>
Make up your mind Brutus, first you want us to ignore you, but now you're requesting that we pay attention.
Personally, I choose option #1. Your incessant childish behavior was initially slightly humorous, but now it's to the point that it's starting to grate a little. Attention is obviously what you're looking for, you certainly don't want to be ignored. But, ignoring you is probably a good way to cut down the number of your rediculous posts on this tread.
Other thread members...How about if, for the next week, we honor Brutus's first request and just ignore him. Just skip his posts without reading them, so we're not even tempted to be sucked into his demented little world. At the end of next week, let's then see if this lack of attention results in him/her crying less. I sure hope so.
Doc
Subject: Re: Pay attention
Date: Fri, Nov 21, 1997 09:03 EST
From: D030296
Message-id: <19971121140300.JAA06595@ladder01.news.aol.com>
Here is a link that will take you right to Identix on the SI board. Subject Search
Subject: Re: Intelligent Dialogue
Date: Fri, Nov 21, 1997 09:12 EST
From: Othee7
Message-id: <19971121141201.JAA05691@ladder02.news.aol.com>
IDX4EVER-BRUTUSONE
SAME SLEEP HABITS
STYLE OF COMMUNICATION
CONSIDER MARRIAGE
Subject: Re: Solomon....says YES!!
Date: Fri, Nov 21, 1997 09:20 EST
From: Rijoed
Message-id: <19971121142001.JAA06157@ladder02.news.aol.com>
I also checked out the news center that is on E-Trade and also nothing on the Solomon Bros. recommendation. Can someone tell me where to find it?
Subject: Re: Pay attention
Date: Fri, Nov 21, 1997 11:46 EST
From: MD1554
Message-id: <19971121164601.LAA18071@ladder01.news.aol.com>
Brutusone,
I enjoy yours & everyones posts on this board and beleive there is value in all questions asked...However, I am very confused....If you asume a CEO is lying or he/she is misleading you, why would you waste your time and energy with such a person or company?
Hope you figure (IDX) things out.
Subject: Re: Pay attention
Date: Fri, Nov 21, 1997 15:52 EST
From: D030296
Message-id: <19971121205200.PAA08199@ladder01.news.aol.com>
From the SI
| Next | Respond |
To: Ed Flynn (5271 )
From: ed doell Friday, Nov 21 1997 10:14AM EST
Reply #5272 of 5277
From the Westergaard site:
>>Wall Street Research
Lehman Brothers / Jeff Kessler
Sutro & Co. / Jerry Fleming
12 mo. price targets are $18 and $20 respectively
November 18, 1997: Salomon Brothers Initiates Coverage with a "BUY" Recommendation
Subtitled, "The Future Is at Your Fingertip"
Support from a firm like Salomon Brothers is exactly what IDX needs to break out after
trading in the $9 - $11 range over the past several months. Even with all of the recent good
news related to corporate partners (Sylvan, NEC) and customer orders (INS, major banks),
IDX has needed new support from Wall Street from a major firm. Importantly, this
recommendation is the first wirehouse report on IDX not related to a corporate finance
relationship (Lehman Brothers initiated coverage after their IDX underwriting in early 1996)
The Highlights and Numbers:
- Salomon recognizes IDX as the industry leader in optical fingerprint imaging and
identification with "unmatched" diverse business lines
- Law Enforcement: "The FBI will likely mandate electronic fingerprint transmission
with the next three years, driving live-scan market penetration into thousands of
police stations"
- Commericial: "New applications including e-commerce, network access (Oracle)
and banking (ATMs) will remove the need for passwords, PINs and Ids" (this is the
holy grail we have previously discussed)
- Untapped Services Market: "Identix is well positioned to address the services
markets of government, child care, finance and gaming with its IAS acquisition and
recent Sylvan joint venture"
- Revenues are estimated to grow by 40% annually for the next four years
- Margins are estimated to improve from 37% in 97 to 43% in 2001
- FY98 earnings: $0.20 from $0.02 in FY97; FY99 estimated at $0.38
- Salomon's 12- 18 month target stock prices are $13 - $19 and DO NOT include the
potential new business from Sylvan Learning Systems and NEC.
WBN analyst closing comment: Nice work What took you guys so long?<<
Subject: How much 2 yrs ago, how much today????
Date: Fri, Nov 21, 1997 18:23 EST
From: Brutusone
Message-id: <19971121232300.SAA21522@ladder02.news.aol.com>
Any answers.......Need to know........lets cut to the chase people we can do it very easily.. Lets run some numbers on our own.
I am not saying management is lying.........But, as the IRS asks you how much you make a year and how much profits and losses you had on your investments, they too have a back up they double check..........
With all the experts, touters and very knowledgeable people on the board why is it that a simple question like this is not answered.
Just to show where my mind is going, if you could also find out how many machines were sold then and how many are being sold now.
PS for this analysis to work we dont even need to know how much the IDX machines are being sold for if you can find out how much the competing machines are being sold for now and then it would be most informative to all of us. You would add value to the board...
Subject: Answer the questions..........
Date: Fri, Nov 21, 1997 18:24 EST
From: Brutusone
Message-id: <19971121232400.SAA21617@ladder02.news.aol.com>
answer the questions, add value to the board.........Lets run some numbers here.
Subject: Re: Solomon....says YES!!
Date: Sat, Nov 22, 1997 08:47 EST
From: Halkhave
Message-id: <19971122134700.IAA24335@ladder01.news.aol.com>
I have obtained the actual Salomon First Call note. If you give me your e-mail address, I can send it to you in a fax file format which means you will be able to view it with your fax software viewer. If that does not work for anyone, I will fax it to you. (I would prefer trying it the first way first; its free)
-Hal
Subject: pricing courtesy of NDTOTO2
Date: Sat, Nov 22, 1997 09:52 EST
From: Brutusone
Message-id: <19971122145201.JAA27242@ladder02.news.aol.com>
LIVESCAN: (basic stand/alone model)
IDX------$40,000.---to---$45,000.
DBI------$45,00O.---to---$50,000.
PRINTRAK------$50,000.-----to----$65.000.
SINGLE-FINGER (basic)
IDX/DBI-------1,000.---to----1,500.
PRINTRAK------?-----not into that market really
MAINTENANCE (extremely variable---depending on many factors)
Can anyone verify these numbers........Now we also need to know how many of each are being sold now and also what the prices were a couple of years ago... Also what about companies like Unisys which is supposedly selling very cheap machines. Also what about companies like the majors like NEC.
Subject: Re: Answer to "Why aren't insiders buying?"
Date: Sun, Nov 23, 1997 00:18 EST
From: Mbenz59869
Message-id: <19971123051801.AAA20773@ladder02.news.aol.com>
>>>>>
Subject: Answer to "Why aren't insiders buying?"
Date: Mon, Nov 17, 1997 12:12 AM
From: IDX4EVER
Message-id: <19971116231200.SAA13391@ladder02.news.aol.com>
Go get your latest Identix Proxy statement. Turn to page 6. Look at the salaries of the top 5 officers. At $200,000 per year Randy Fowler is not making big money for a chairman, prresident and CEO of an up and coming technology company. Other than Harrison Walther ($290,000 including bonus), the rest of the five highest paid are not excessively paid either - Scullion ($165,000), Maase ($140,000) and Cauble ($110,000).
Now look at the table of options on page 7. The amount of options held are as follows -
Fowler 290,000
Walther 105,000
Scullion 180,000
Maase 126,000
Cauble 40,000
Why doesn't management buy stock outright? #1) They don't make enough money to and #2) they have enough exposure to the stock through options.
Why would management be will to take a large portion of their salary through stock options if they didn't believe in the company? Why don't they exercise their options now and sell? They must have faith that the stock will go higher.<<<<<
Here is the link for the insider's form 144 registration of 45,000 shares. He hasn't sold YET.........looks like about 1/3 of his position.
insidertrader.com
IDX management - your stockholders are watching your actions. How do you expect us to hold stock in Identix for the long term if you sell the stock that you obtain from stock options?
Subject: The future is in software.
Date: Sun, Nov 23, 1997 03:00 EST
From: Mccoolkey
Message-id: <19971123080000.DAA02776@ladder02.news.aol.com>
Instead of pondering the price of live-scan machines and fingerprint readers, consider the below thoughts from SI. Hardware in biometrics is quickly becoming a commodity item whose price and profit will continue to fall. Fowler has said they have figured out how to capture fingerprints. The real key is what you do with the print after its captured. This is the real excitement about IDX. Fowler understands that IDX must be a value added provider
to truly be an important and profitable player in biometrics.
Holy Grail market analysis . . . .
Buck's last Netscape reference seemed to have helped me put together a personal market overview on the biometric software market, and how IDX may be planning to put its strategy together.
This is the most important, and most interesting, market. It hasn't arrived yet, but when it does it could be massive. For biometrics to be accepted on the Internet and intranets (local area networks, like internal corporate or government systems) it has to be inexpensive and easy to operate. NRID has a deal with Keytronics, a keyboard manufacturer, to put a scanner on a keyboard. It costs, I think, $200 or $300. IDX at the moment has only Touchlan,
costing $500 or more per work station -- and a tie-in to Oracle. Although NRID has a potential market advantage on IDX in this field due to price and ease of use, IDX technology has privacy advantages over the NRID technology. But I don't believe this PC-based approach is the direction to go, and further, I don't believe that IDX is ultimately going there. (IDX has no keyboard scanner in the works, according to the IDX rep I spoke with the other day
at the Computer Security show.)
I think IDX bought BAT because of the Netscape plug-in it was developing. Further, J. Saf's post 5123 on the Holy Grail indicates that IDX (certainly through BAT) is working a network-based Java-based applet approach with both Microsoft and Netscape. Allowing a network server to supply the IDX algorithm to the end user, rather than trying to put it in a box on each person's desk, can commoditize this market faster than anything. It will leapfrog
Touchlan and NRID's Keytronic tie-in, and any subsequent improvements on these products. (This may explain why the Oracle effort is slow going -- it is not the most elegant possible solution.) I think it also would trump the recent GTE announcement, since it should be cheaper at the desktop and would have network acceptance from the big guys, Microsoft and Netscape.
I think, and correct me if I'm wrong, that all it will require is a keyboard-based finger scanner with the cheapest and best technology (say, the Lucent chip) to communicate with the network server. (It may need a smart card reader, as well, for personal verification, especially for initial enrollment in order to prevent identity theft at enrollment -- let's hear from someone who understands this a bit better). This is a cheaper, simpler, much more
mass produced universal solution than PC-based Touchlan equivalents. It will also bring a great deal of consumer acceptance and a quicker market than the present technology.
Comments?
Subject: Re: The future is in software.
Date: Sun, Nov 23, 1997 06:44 EST
From: MAMAS12
Message-id: <19971123114400.GAA09565@ladder02.news.aol.com>
previous conference call; ? Mr Fowler remarked the necessity of a softwear
PLANT
in the future
is memory true or did i dream
Subject: Interesting shift
Date: Sun, Nov 23, 1997 10:38 EST
From: Brutusone
Message-id: <19971123153801.KAA23862@ladder01.news.aol.com>
INTERESTING, now we are not looking at the readers but the software........Is that good or bad for IDX if the market place wants cheaper solutions to the ID problem.......
Subject: Re: Interesting shift
Date: Sun, Nov 23, 1997 20:42 EST
From: D030296
Message-id: <19971124014200.UAA23998@ladder02.news.aol.com>
My stock was called. Someone must really want it.
Subject: Re: Answer to "Why aren't insiders buying?"
Date: Mon, Nov 24, 1997 00:00 EST
From: Dawala
Message-id: <19971124050001.AAA15748@ladder02.news.aol.com>
I am no tax expert but I have read that there is some type of loop hole in the tax system
that lets corporate officers not pay as much tax or no tax on options, I think it works as instead of cash money (salary) they take options to avoid or delay taxes...maybe that is why
they do not buy stock outright they would rather take a salary of options for tax reasons.
Any tax professionals out there?
DAWALA |
