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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Return to Sender who wrote (55863)3/31/2012 10:07:06 PM
From: Return to Sender1 Recommendation  Respond to of 95561
 
From Briefing.com: Weekly Recap - Week ending 30-Mar-12Broad support on Friday helped the S&P 500 come back after booking three straight declines. The effort helped feed a weekly gain of 0.8%, which stands as the eleventh weekly advance in 13 tries for the S&P 500. That hot streak drove the broad market measure to a 3.1% gain for March -- its fourth straight monthly gain -- and a 12.0% gain for the first quarter. That marks the best quarterly performance for the stock market since 2009 and the best first quarter performance since 1998.

Tech stocks were integral in the stock market's streak of gains, but they were relatively weak today. That hampered the Nasdaq. In fact, Tech fell 0.4% and was the only sector to settle in the red. Despite that, Tech still scored a 1.0% weekly gain, a 5.0% monthly gain, and a 21.1% quarterly gain.

For the second straight day Energy emerged as a leader after a listless start to the session. Energy stocks advanced 0.8% on Friday, but fell 0.5% for the week and 3.4% for the month. The Energy sector was up 3.4% in the first quarter, but that paled in comparison to the 17.6% that it had rallied in the fourth quarter.

Energy's action this week came in close connection to movement in oil prices. Earlier this week oil prices fell to a new monthly low narrowly above $102 per barrel, but it bounced back to $103 per barrel today. As a proxy for oil's action this week, the US Oil Fund (USO 39.23, -0.06) fell 3.6% this week and 4.0% for the month. It advanced 2.9% for the quarter.

Corporate news today was limited in scope and generally without consequence. For the most part economic data was also shrugged off.

Personal income reportedly increased in February by 0.2%, but that is slightly less than the 0.3% increase that had been generally expected. However, personal spending grew by 0.8%, which is faster than the 0.6% increase that had been broadly expected.

The Chicago PMI slipped to 62.2 in March from 64.0 in February. A tick down to 63.0 had been broadly expected.

The final reading on consumer sentiment in March from the University of Michigan improved to 76.2 from the preliminary reading of 74.3, which is where economists polled by Briefing.com had generally expected the reading to remain.

Earlier in the week it was announced that the Conference Board's latest Consumer Confidence Index declined to 70.2 from an upwardly revised 71.6 for the prior month. The decline was on the order of what had been widely anticipated, though.

The latest initial jobless claims count climbed 9,000 week-over-week to 359,000, which is greater than the tally of 350,000 that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com.

Durable goods orders increased by 2.2% during February, but that is actually a slower pace than the 2.8% increase that had been broadly expected. Prior month orders data were revised slightly higher to reflect a 3.6% decline. Excluding transportation items, durable goods orders were up 1.6% in February. That is a stronger clip than the 1.0% increase that had been widely expected, but still relatively underwhelming when compared to loftier estimates that were widely issued. Nonetheless, the latest figure marks an improvement from the prior month decline of 3.0%.

The final reading on fourth quarter GDP continued to show that the economy expanded at a rate of 3.0%, just as had been widely anticipated, but in a separate event Fed Chairman Bernanke seemed to give tacit indication that the Fed recognizes the need for accommodative policies, given that job market conditions remain far from normal.

...Nasdaq 100 -0.1%. ..S&P Midcap 400 +0.0%. ..Russell 2000 -0.2%.

Index Started Week Ended Week Change %Change YTD %
DJIA 13080.73 13212.04 131.31 1.0 8.1
Nasdaq 3067.92 3091.57 23.65 0.8 18.7
S&P 500 1397.11 1408.47 11.36 0.8 12.0
Russell 2000 830.03 830.30 0.27 0.0 12.1

4:08PM Analog Devices announces that it has acquired Multigig, financial terms were not disclosed (ADI) 40.40 +0.39 : Co announces that it has acquired Multigig. Co says the acquisition will enhance ADI's clocking capabilities in stand-alone and embedded applications, and will strengthen ADI's industry-leading position in delivering high-speed data converters and signal processing solutions. Analog Devices acquired Multigig, Inc. in a cash transaction completed on March 30, 2012. The engineers will become part of ADI's existing clock design team and will move to ADI's San Jose, CA facility.

12:55PM Research In Motion edges above early high -- session high 14.54 (RIMM) 14.51 +0.78 : The stock reported a Q1 miss but stated that they are evaluating strategic alternatives. The opening high at 14.49 has been slightly breached in recent trade with an area of technical interest slightly above at 14.65/14.80. This marks it 50 ema, March recovery high and 50 sma.

7:17AM ASM Intl NV announced that Dutch Supreme Court dismissed request for enquiry (ASMI) 38.84 : Co announced that the Dutch Supreme Court confirmed the decision of the Enterprise Court dated April, 14 2011 that there are no grounds to order an enquiry into the affairs of the co as requested by Fursa and Hermes in 2008. Fursa and Hermes were ordered to pay the co's legal expenses. Decision is final and cannot be appealed.

Acacia Research (ACTG) announced that its DRAM Memory Technologies subsidiary has entered into a settlement agreement with Integrated Silicon Solution (ISSI) regarding patents related to double data rate SDRAM devices. The settlement agreement resolves litigation that was pending in the Central District of California.

08:09 am Research In Motion downgraded to Underperform at FBR Capital; tgt lowered to $11: . FBR Capital downgrades RIMM to Underperform from Mkt Perform and lowers their tgt to $11 from $14 following earnings. The firm notes the co suspended quantitative guidance, but guided business metrics lead them to believe its turnaround strategy could take significantly more time to develop and execute. CEO Hein's commentary on the call highlighted that "substantial change is what RIM needs" in order to stabilize the business-and they agree. Overall the firm says, the challenges appear immense. They expect the company's longer-term viability to hinge on the success of BB10 OS and, potentially, a single smartphone product currently under development and expected to be on the market in 2H12. It appears that one of the most significant stock catalysts, M&A, is being de-emphasized by management, providing little hope of substantial upside.

11:51 am Technology sector trading flat today despite market gains

The tech sector is trading lower today, trailing the broader market. Semiconductors are showing relative strength in the tech space, however, with the Philly Semi Index trading 0.6% higher. SPRD (+4.0%) is a notable leader in the chip index. Among other major indices, the SPY is trading 0.3% higher today, while the QQQ is flat on the session and the NASDAQ is trading 0.1% higher on the session. Among tech bellwethers, AAPL (-1.2%) is under notable pressure, while TXN (+1.4%) is showing strength.

In earnings last night, RIMM (+4.6%) reported a Q1 miss, but stated that the company is evaluating strategic alternatives. Elsewhere, TIBX (-4.5%) posted quarterly beat and issued a new buyback program. In news last night, AAPL (-1.2%) and Foxconn have agreed to new labor standard in China, according to reports.

Also last night, Soros Fund Mgmt disclosed a 7.98% stake in DRIV (+2.2%).

Among notable analyst upgrades this morning, LNKD (+0.5%) was upgraded to Positive at Susquehanna. While in downgrades, RIMM (+4.6%) was downgraded to Underperform at FBR and Needham downgraded XRTX (-10.6%) to Hold. There are no notable names in tech scheduled to report results today after the close.



To: Return to Sender who wrote (55863)4/1/2012 11:39:52 AM
From: Investor2  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95561
 
So the indicator is now bullish? Perhaps similar to 2006?



To: Return to Sender who wrote (55863)4/1/2012 1:25:46 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 95561
 
RtS, I certainly agree with you about one indicator not being enough.

<<But one indicator is not enough.>>

I like a lot of indicators both technical and fundamental. However, the chart presented is easy to read, and as the author pointed out, it is a conservative way of getting into the market.

Looking at the chart, I would argue the most compelling attribute is when the indicator makes a sharp dip, as it did in 2002 and later in 2008/09, and then recovers, the S&P-500 gains have been substantial for a number of years.

We are now potentially reaching another peak in the S&P-500 level. The 1400 level has been breached to the upside. It looks like there may be a little way to go yet to reach the ultimate peak, but bpNDX has been receding a little from the high of 98 to 94 to 88 to close at 86.

In between 2009 and today, the indicator has taken a couple of dips, and the S&P-500 retrenched a little. The last one occurring last summer and ending with the start of the fall quarter. The loss in the summer quarter and the subsequent gains of the fall and this winter quarter were just posted in detail in post,

Message 28050061

Looking back in hindsight, have you reviewed the indicators you use to see if, and how strongly, the strong upside of the last 6 months was forecasted? I was expecting a movement to the upside since the summer quarter was so negative, but I didn't expect the strength or length to be as positive as it was. Also, of course, the upside movement may have a little further to go, but I look for it to falter at any time.