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Biotech / Medical : Oxford Health Plan (OXHP) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Christopher White who wrote (261)	11/25/1997 12:26:00 AM
From: Michael Burry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2068

Once again, you are not counting AR. Interesting. Further, unless you are a believer in EMT, it is interesting you would make the following statement: <<As for future earnings, well there is a lot of uncertainty there - otherwise the stock wouldn't be languishing in the low 20's>> Good Investing, Mike

To: Christopher White who wrote (261)	11/25/1997 1:14:00 AM
From: Joshua Wolf	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2068

I have been in the business for a while and have yet to find any investment that is "certain". E-mail me to let me know when you locate one. Investors are rewarded for accepting varying levels of uncertainty. Often, crowd behavior will exagerate or underestimate these levels and create situations in which you can obtain an outsized reward for a given level of risk. The key to exploiting investor overreaction is to look through the noise and hype and base your decisions on sound, independant reasoning and realistic expectations. Don't allow yourself to be overly influenced by analyst research , because they are very subject to the cognitive errors that generate the overeraction in the first place. I personally like to see situations like OXHP because they are generally accompanied by investor overreaction. I will pursue a company that exhibits a clearly defined business strategy or competitive advantage, a history of strong profitability and a conservative financial position. I attempt to understand the current issues responsible for the company's price decline, distinguish between transitory and permanent problems, assess management's response and identify potential catalysts for price reversion. Some of the primary questions that I would address with OXHP before investing are: 1) Does the company have a clearly defined busines strategy for the future? 2) Can above-average profitability be sustained after the information systems problem is resolved ? 3) Can the systems glitch be considered a short-term, non-structural problem that can be easily resolved? How long to fix the problem? Are there other problems being overlooked or underweighted in your decision, such as change in industry structure? 4) What is management's plan for dealing with the problems(s) and does it seem viable - realistic? 5) Does the company have adequate financial strength to sustain the company through a prolonged problem period? Drive Safely!