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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (89637)	4/29/2012 10:58:03 PM
From: TobagoJack	1 Recommendation Respond to of 217552

I am certain that 1.odd billion folks w/ savings, equity, and full of hope, just getting under way, shall not fall down tomorrow and even if falls, forget to get up, and stop producing, consuming, educating, learning, and saving. Hendry does not understand or forgot, that china collapsed, and is bottoming. China once was and shall again be at 30+% of global GDP. The ideas that china would fall because somehow, whether by global equalization of wages / productivity, or by planetary leveling of energy ramp, or free energy in USA are all suspect ideas for all the obvious reasons and many unintended consequence. The ideas that china shall fall because of fiat money inflation or debt load or growing old before rich are equally if not more suspect for all the obvious reasons. Then there is always the fallback / backstop, something about the banking system, which is truly funny as the banking system is mostly just a conduit and not stuffed full of derivatives. In truth no derivatives at all other than fiat money. What Hendry wrote could have and had been written many times over the past 30 years, but alas, still waiting. As to the Chinese stock market, given that folks are in at the 10% level, close enough for government work, the market index can go to zero and would not mean much. The equity cult is a curse, but as far as china n European mainland are concerned, the cult has a minuscule following. Am singularly unconcerned about china macro, because it is secular up and cyclical anything that has no particular meaning beyond a few months hiccup. I shall read Hendry (I actually enjoy his writing style n content, for the joy and reflection) tonight. Cheers, tj

To: orkrious who wrote (89637)	4/30/2012 6:39:32 AM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217552

As I had mentioned enough times, my gold is a china play, as well as a hedge for all other china plays From some report named "on target" "... A J-Curve Forecast for Gold The price of gold is not likely to fall far, or for too long, says Daily Telegraph commentator Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, even though “it has reached a half- century high against a basket of indicators – equities, Treasuries, homes, workers’ pay.” The root cause of the troubles of the world economy remains – “the deformed structure of globalization, with a $10 trillion reserve accumulation by the emerging powers, and an investment boom in manufacturing to flood Western markets, disguised by debt bubbles in the Anglo-sphere and Club Med.” Indeed, in some respects things are worse. Consumer demand is an even smaller proportion of the Chinese economy, having shrunk to 37 per cent of GDP compared to 48 per cent a decade ago. “The mercantilists (chiefly China and Germany) are still holding on to trade surpluses through rigged currencies... exerting a contractionary bias on the deficit states.” There is still over-supply in the global economy, as there was in the Great Depression years. If the central banks keep printing money, the Asian surplus powers, as well as Russia and the Gulf states, will have to find somewhere to park their growing foreign reserves. Those countries won’t want to accumulate more of the deficit countries’ paper promises. Russia is raising the gold share of its reserves to 10 per cent. China is known to be considering acquiring large gold reserves to boost its currency, the renminbi, as an international rival to the dollar. Sasha Opel of Orsus Consult expects Beijing to boost its holdings by “several thousand tons” over the next five years to match America’s 8,000 and the Eurozone’s 11,000. HSBC’s James Steel says $1,450 is a natural floor for the gold price as that is now the marginal cost of mining additional metal, and “peak gold” is a closer reality than “peak oil.” World output has been stuck for a decade at around 2,700 tons a year, despite a fourfold increase in investment. No great find – another Witwatersrand – is in prospect. The consultancy Thomson Reuters GFMS reckons the immediate outlook for gold is a “rough patch” taking prices below $1,600. Then several factors could rekindle investment interest in the yellow metal such as the debt crisis in the Eurozone, looser policy from the US central bank such as money printing ahead of the November presidential election, a let-up in China’s tighter-money policy, a jump in oil prices raising fears of runaway inflation. Together, such factors could trigger a fresh wave of interest in gold, boosting investment demand to nearly 2,000 tons, worth more than $100 billion, surpassing the 2009 record of 1,922 tons, and taking prices to a new record above $2,000 in the next 12 months ..."

To: orkrious who wrote (89637)	4/30/2012 9:41:03 AM
From: Snowshoe	Respond to of 217552

Always fun to read Hendry! Given that banana graphic he must be a Velvet Underground fan... :o)

To: orkrious who wrote (89637)	4/30/2012 6:36:55 PM
From: TobagoJack	4 Recommendations Respond to of 217552

I love reading Hendry, enjoys his style, and think he is wrong on several important points I list below in order of their appearance in the letter, (i) Hendry fails to understand china housing wasn't just about urban migration, or increase in ownership (the initial increase was in truth mostly give-always per privatization of public stock), but most importantly about overall quality improvement of housing stock starting at a very low base. The failure to account for the most obvious as one is likely to do if viewing china as a still photograph as opposed to as a motion picture, one's analysis of the so-called china property bubble falls down. How many empty apartments in work-in-process does upgrading the entire housing stock and accounting for urbanization take? For 1.3 billion folks? (ii) Hendry is wrong to assume folks bought property in response to low borrowing cost, because folks who borrowed 50-70% understood well that the borrowing rates are floating. (iii) Hendry is flawed in comparing china real estate market to those of any other because china had no real estate market for 50 years before housing onset of housing privatization. What would cuba's real estate market look like as n when that island rings the starting bell on privatization? (iv) Hendry is mixed up re housing financing per shadow banking system. The shadow's financing is in response of housing imperative and unlike in the USA where the shadow plus need for derivatives instigated not so much a housing bubble but a derivative balloon. (v) Hendry falls short in his analysis re America's qe-ad-infinitum and china's money printing, and is amiss in detailing a qualitative difference. America's continuing QE is just filling a obligation crater at near-end of a short 300-years experiment in pop-culturedom, resuscitating the walking-dead companies and banks, and is further obligating its savings-zero and already bankrupt joe6pack whose retirement is as bad as cancelled. China's continuing money printing is mobilizing otherwise less-than-willing savings mountain to catch up on what hadn't been done in long 300 years hiccup of a civilization state. Small difference in motivation, no difference in execution, but may be big enough difference in outcome. (vi) the very fact that Hendry tee-ed up china rail development as misallocation of capital tells me Hendry fell down to pop culture media drivel. China needs the new passenger rail system to lighten up the load for freight, that which is absolutely necessary to develop its western and inland regions which had suffered the same 300-years collapse and not started to catch up until very recently, barely getting started. (vii) Hendry is not appreciating a big difference between china civilization state and other pop culture nation states when he raised the issue of china political economy. The difference is that the outgoing china leadership sets up its anointed successor leadership to win, while politicians in mere nation states set up successors to lose. (viii) the very few examples of waste in china infrastructure rollout given by Hendry is all true, but hardly unexpected in the rebirth of a civilization state. Even if the waste is big, we must remember china is huge, and have always done everything, good n bad, humongous. So what of it? (ix) Hendry is not taking his own medicine when using the analogy of Britain-America on China-America instead of America-China, especially when claiming China is the stronger-looking economy, failing to consider that maybe most folks in china-India view America as the stronger-looking economy. (x) Hendry then and finally descent into ignorance when he expounded on China manufacturing competitiveness and the hurt that be due to labour cost rise. Someone ought to remind Hendry of a few very simple but fatal bullet points, and they are: - labour cost rise is a good thing - especially when there are plenty of inexpensive labour and cheap savings to be mobilized by development of rail system to be used in revving up a long collapsed and newly powered up civilization state whose purpose is not to supply trinkets to declining pop culture nations as do the Japan's n Koreans of this planet, but to mind its own continental economy enterprise - manufacturing is not about labour cost, but about critical mass of enterprise, innovation, improvements, capital mobilized from true savings, education, and hope - to the extent that it makes sense to make certain items closer to where the end customers are, the outfits that correctly incorporate china in supply chain shall likely win easier, but such outfits are less than likely to be non-china aligned, calibrated, tuned, or otherwise associated. Hendry commits the fatal sin in his history view starting at his nose, failing to account for the truth that china but for hiccup had once led the world and the qualities of that leadership is as was. 30% global GDP share is not just an unobtainium dream but was once an overarching and omnipresent reality. China is not and never could be a Japan, and I mean that in compliment; for anyone to compare continental civilization state china to island Japan is ... Let us be polite and leave it at flawed. (xi) Hendry then ponies up the china 'hot money' issue. A question, how does one tell apart china 'hot money' from china 'entrepreneurial foreign direct investment' as championed and encouraged by the sovereign? (xii) Hendry is fearful of the coming collapse of the rmb. Giggle. Would not such a collapse fix many of his other worries? (xiii) it is telling that Hendry's so-called China shorts are for the most part short on non-china shares, and I have no particular debate there, for - the china share market, devoid of American-style equity culture, in inconsequential except as an indicator / guidance to policy intensions re zig n zag, on n off as china sovereign navigates (and so far so good) between the imperatives of the inland rural china continental economy and the needs of the coastal urban china continental economy. - as china evolves, the overseas suppliers to china shall become less relavent, and then become a hindrance to be either cooped or excised. (xiv) by long the debt of wastrel states and short everything bric, Hendry may well be correct as far as his portfolio denominated in usd is concerned, but that is about as far as it goes. Broad sweeps of history can escape him and he does not need to be wiser. Given the money printing and deflation, and given the wasting of savings everywhere, Hendry's portfolio stance is wise. Cannot fault Hendry too much, for after all he is just and but a portfolio manager. Cheers, tj

To: orkrious who wrote (89637)	4/30/2012 8:05:48 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217552

A thought before I start my public holiday this day, that for Hendry to champion investing / throwing away money (depending on time horizon intend) in the midst of on-going officialdoms' financial / monetary repression may not end well if held to maturity, and in order for the wager to pay off, the cr@p must be beaten out of the oecd share market and real economy, and when so in OECD pop culture states, would also wobble brics, and amongst the brics, the civilization state c Hendry's short against china rejuvenation shares domiciled everywhere except china may well be spot on, for many reasons having everything to do with china economic reform, but perhaps not in the way Hendry believes. iow, Hendry wages can pay, but it is hardly necessary that he be correct on china, the single civilization state actually practicing and is most practiced at genuine reform across the entire spectrum, at high frequency and rising amplitude. Should china be half as successful in reforming its rural / inland continental economy as it has so far been of coastal / urban, shorting all items Japan may work out even as clearly bubbled Aussie resource shares may also pay out to the shorts (truck drivers in Perth earn usd 200+ k per annum, a screaming short for those who dare). Let us continue to watch n brief.

To: orkrious who wrote (89637)	7/27/2020 6:49:43 AM
From: TobagoJack	1 Recommendation Recommended By bull_dozer Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217552

Hello orkrious, << Hugh Hendry, in a must read letter, thinks China is toast>> Trust you continue to be well and happily busy. I adore Hugh’s scribbling. Am really happy he is back in the game. Re China, Hugh was and remains way early. But re dollar, he is correct I believe, and if so, the anti-dollar should do very well Remember, at 2,000 gold phase-changes into a necessity ... a guide i had worked out for RobinHooder back in 2005 :0) Message 21941081 “In terms of stopping these periodic dramatic flares, would it not be better to target not bond prices, but instead to target the actual value of the dollar?” he asked. In recent notes, Hendry has suggested that the dollar is “the new goldstandard,” and that it would be better to devalue the dollar than to continue focusing on QE initiatives. He argues that this would be “hugely bullish” for stocks. cnbc.com The U.S. can ‘change the world’ by devaluing the dollar, analyst claims Chloe Taylor U.S. policymakers could “change the world” by devaluing the dollar, one analyst has claimed. Speaking to CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Monday, independent macro advisor Hugh Hendry said quantitative easing programs — where central banks buy assets like government bonds to inject liquidity into the economy — were not working. Instead of targeting bonds as a form of economic stimulus, policymakers should look to the value of the greenback, he suggested. “Quantitative easing — we’re being missold something,” Hendry argued. “Simply publishing or expanding these inert central bank reserves and trying to scare us all to death that they’re actually printing real money is a fraud.” The underlying problem, he claimed, is that there is a shortage of dollars in the global market. “America has decided over several decades to impose a global dollar standard, a monetary standard on the rest of the world,” Hendry said. “It’s one thing to be the king, (but) you have to behave regally, you have to behave like the king. So if you’re going to impose a dollar standard on the world, you have to stand by and provide sufficient liquidity. And that’s actually where they’ve been failing.” Hendry said the widespread sell-off in March, where global markets plummeted amid the height of fears around the coronavirus, was partially due to investors having to sell assets in order to create dollars and repay debt. While he conceded that the Fed and dollar swap lines were successful in those moments at holding supply back and “putting their thumb in the dam,” Hendry proposed that an alternative approach was needed to support the economy. “In terms of stopping these periodic dramatic flares, would it not be better to target not bond prices, but instead to target the actual value of the dollar?” he asked. In recent notes, Hendry has suggested that the dollar is “the new goldstandard,” and that it would be better to devalue the dollar than to continue focusing on QE initiatives. He argues that this would be “hugely bullish” for stocks. “When I look at the world of macro, I think it’s telling us that we need a lower print on the dollar itself,” he told CNBC on Monday. “I think we need the Treasury, and not the Fed, to step up to the plate and tell the world ‘we’re going to target 70 or 60 on the dollar index.’ That would change the world.” The dollar index, which measures the value of the greenback against a basket of major rivals, edged higher to around 97.728 on Tuesday. Sent from my iPad