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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: rnsmth who wrote (132782)	5/2/2012 10:33:48 AM
From: rnsmth	Respond to of 213172

And, just so folks don't think I am blowing smoke with no skin in the game, our IRAs (me and the iWife), are a bit over 60% Jan 2014 $600 LEAPS. That position is up very nicely since we built most of it in February and early March.

To: rnsmth who wrote (132782)	5/2/2012 11:02:36 AM
From: Moonray	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 213172

Apple will have earnings per share of over $75 in Fiscal 2013. I prefer something a little more conservative. Like this Standard & Poor's blurb issued the day after the earnings announcement last week: "04/25/12 05:33 am ET ... RETRANSMIT - S&P RE- ITERATES BUY OPINION ON SHARES OF APPLE (AAPL 560.28**): AAPL posts Mar-Q EPS of $12.30 vs. $6.40, well above our estimate of $11.53, reflecting a notably higher gross margin than we projected, owing largely to low flash memory costs. Revenues rose 59%, reflecting gains in iPhones and iPads, which accounted for three quarters of total revenues. Greater China accounted for 19% of revenues. We are raising our EPS estimates for FY 12 (Sep.) to $48.00 from $46.50, and for FY 13 to $55.00 from $53.50. Our FY 14 forecast remains $62.00. Re- flecting our higher estimates, we are raising our 12-month target price to $825 from $800. /S. Kessler" If one applies their earnings and a PER of 15 then AAPL's price should be: 2012 Q2 $12.30 = $41.02 12 mo x 15 = $615 (about where it is now) 2012 Q3 $11.67 = $44.90 12 mo x 15 = $673 2012 Q4 $10.17 = $48.00 Annual x 15 = $720 (next fall) 2013 $55.00 Annual x 15 = $825 2014 $62.00 Annual x 15 = $930 (two and a half years from now) I use a 15 PER because AAPL seems to have flat-lined at about that number. The "Great Recession" coupled with AAPL's earning rising faster than the stock price seems to have taken a PER toll: o~~~ O**

To: rnsmth who wrote (132782)	5/2/2012 12:17:47 PM
From: XoFruitCake	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 213172

Apple will have earnings per share of over $75 in Fiscal 2013. At a 12 P/E, that will put Apple at $900 a share sometime in October/November of 2013 2Q Apple sold a combined 37 million unit of Ipad and Iphone and make 12.30. So for $18.5 per quarter run rate, Apple will have to sell 50% more or roughly 55-56 million combined Iphone and Ipad with similar margin as today. 1Q smartphone market grow at 42% according to Tim Cook (and there are a few article that cited similar smartphone growth rate). The question is going to be what is the smartphone growth rate and Apple's Iphone going forward. Would it be 20% growth run rate or 40% growth run rate by 4Q? The overall phone market (dumb + smartphone) only grow about 5 to 6% a year and smartphone already passed the 50% overall market share. So the conversion form dumb to smart phone should slow down soon.. In the next couple quarter, Iphone should pick the RIMM conversion clean (i.e. die hard RIMM shop will stay until the new QNS phone early next year and the rest would have convert by then to Android or Iphone). We know that Ipad 3 margin is not as good as Iphone (that was one of the reason Cook cited for better than expected margin in F2Q.. They didn't sell as much Ipad). I can see Ipad double the sale next year but the margin is going to be uncertain because of the mix of Ipad 3, Ipad 2 and whether they will do a Ipad mini. Iphone is full of question for me especially on the margin side. If you follow the Iphone 5 rumor, there are too many new features that will cost lot of money (better resolution/bigger size screen -> more expensive glass, water proof iphone, new touch screen assembly from Toshiba to reduce the thickness, bigger battery to improve the batter life, Quad cord A6, 4G LTE chip). All the carrier cutting subsidy is air to me but I question how many more sales can China mobile bring to the table given that China Unicom and China Telecom represent 60% of the smart phone market in China already are selling 4S. The third carrier may just even out the sales between the carriers and not bringing in a lot of sales (especially the China Mobile version can only run on their new 4G network that they are just beginning to build. Not sure how big China mobile 4G network will be next year). There are too many variables to watch for now to know what the earning will be next year..