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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (13169)	5/30/2012 10:35:12 AM
From: robert b furman	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

HI John, Commercial loans are beginning to grow. Those with assets and good credit are using debt to get bigger. Those with too much debt have a longer term struggle to pay down - it will take time,but it already has taken 6 yeas. A stong dollar and weak commodities will grow margins as prices will hold (except gas and natural gas). Consumer discretionary will slowly go up and Auto's housing will slowly add - when in the past they did not. Ebergy and fracking of oil is huge and a decent percent of the GDP. Our banks are the strongest and we have the oil resources. We will lead the recession with slow growth. A relatively good/better story ve the world. Good to hear from you. Bob

To: John Pitera who wrote (13169)	5/31/2012 11:54:35 AM
From: Augustus Gloop	Respond to of 33421

I think we're within 24 months of the averages getting smoked again. IMO we've been in a secular bear since 2000 which probably means another leg down. If so the question is how deep? What say Johnstradomas?

To: John Pitera who wrote (13169)	6/1/2012 6:10:20 AM
From: John Pitera	5 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

10 year yields crashing through the Panic 2009 lows, down as low as 1,53% and closing at 1.58%. and German 10 years Bunds trading below 1.25% in yield. interesting item crude has been in free fall recently at 86, there is support at 78%, about 14% from here. Copper has been down hard has 14% more to go to reach last years low. The Russell 2000 also had about 14% more to decline to hit a support zone that provided several bottoms last year. The world bank president is commenting that the summer of 2012 is providing an "eerie echo" of the pre Lehman panic of 2008. It certainly feels like it. Obviously the Euro has fallen almost 10 big figures since the start of May. Spain is proving to be a supreme cause for concern as the banks and the soverign debt is under tremendous pressure. The Chinese economic numbers are pointiing to the biggest slowdown in over a decade, as there is some talk of them providing some easing. The US PMI numbers are weakening and I suspect that the unemployment number is going to show less that 100,000 new jobs created, which is the number the market was looking for. The Bond market has become dsyfunctional. John Mauldin's concept of the "Endgame" appears to continue to play out. as quoted from today's bloomberg: "German Chancellor Angela Merkel was besieged by critics for letting the euro crisis smolder, with the leaders of Italy and the European Central Bank demanding bolder steps to stabilize the 17-nation economy. Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti and ECB President Mario Draghi pushed Germany to give up its opposition to direct euro- area aid for struggling banks. Monti further antagonized Germany by urging a roadmap to common borrowing. Calling himself a devotee of German-style budgetary rigor, Monti told a Brussels conference yesterday that Merkel’s vision of a stable economy *“risks being undermined because of lack of promptness in setting up the necessary instruments to limit the contagion.”* Financial markets offered a snapshot of Europe’s stresses after more than two years of crisis, with the euro close to its weakest in two years against the dollar. German two-year note yields fell below zero today as investors paid for shelter from the market mayhem afflicting Italy and Spain. Draghi told a European Parliament committee in Brussels that without more aggressive action by policy makers the euro “is being shown now to be unsustainable unless further steps are being undertaken.” the Facebook debacle and the additional turbulence has frozen the IPO market. It's not looking good out there in market land. It truly feels very unstable. John