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Technology Stocks : S3 (A LONGER TERM PERSPECTIVE) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jan A. Van Hummel who wrote (8115)	11/26/1997 7:22:00 PM
From: stockroach	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 14577

Jan, I believe that the GX3 will not be shiping until april/May timeframe. Just because S3 will have production available does not mean they will see revenue. Boxmakers design cycle will be for 2nd half of 98. Volume shipments will be in late July - early August so the first real impact for the bottom line will be for the 3rd quarter. After getting burned by S3 I don't think many analysts are going to stick their neck out and recomend the stock especially after the next 3 quarters of probable losses ( just guessing here). I agree with you that it won't take much for S3 to get back to $8 but when is the question. The fab going public and design wins will help but with the volitility in techs now, Asia being 70% of their business I am not sure all the bad news is out or if we have seen the bottom yet. Stockroach

To: Jan A. Van Hummel who wrote (8115)	11/26/1997 8:07:00 PM
From: Jan A. Van Hummel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14577

Frank, You mentioned abt 70 % sales to the Far East. I checked last year's annual report. This is what it states: In 1996 61 % was export. Of the export sales 12 % was to Hong Kong and 27 % to Taiwan and 33 % to affiliates of U.S. customers (one could argue that a good part of these sales went to the Far East as well. It is not clear where the rest of the export sales went to. So of total sales 7.3 % went to Hong Kong, 16.5 % to Taiwan and 20 % to affiliates of U.S customers. It aint' good, but not that bad either. Probably the majority of the sales to the Pacific Rim are concentrated in Taiwan, which certainly is preferrable over Thailand, Indonesia or the Philippines. HK is in-between and S. Korea not real good. Since the report singles out HK and Taiwan sales to the other areas are likely insignificant. I believe though you are right in that we have not seen the worst yet in Asia, but hopefully the recent APEC top meeting will result in these problems being addressed head-on. JMHO Jan