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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Asymmetric who wrote (10628)	11/27/1997 2:40:00 AM
From: Cymeed	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25960

Dear Peter, I personally believe Cymi still got way too many day traders following it. This can cause inflated share volume. Besides, I am starting to question the floating volume. Can somebody tell me how accurate are those "floating" counts ? But any way, the best strategy, imo, may still be for the longs to unite together and call the stock certificates, therefore forcing a squeeze on the short. It may only take a couple of days to make the shorts to scramble for covering. And the reason it works is that the shorts just overdone it (in terms of volume). More suggestions ?

To: Asymmetric who wrote (10628)	11/27/1997 7:22:00 AM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

I keep saying this but no one listens. Do you all have your float right. exchange2000.com IBD shows 24 mil share float.

To: Asymmetric who wrote (10628)	11/27/1997 1:07:00 PM
From: aknahow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

Not an answer but a site for short info and history. May not update same day new data is released but still nice site. Can do many sorts based on Ave volume, greatest volume, largest increase etc. Do not own CYMI just checking up on Bety and why so many post<g> viwes.com Follow link to top 20 List. BTW what goes around comes around so if I got this site from someone on this thread, thanks. Know I got it here on S.I. a year ago.

To: Asymmetric who wrote (10628)	11/27/1997 2:27:00 PM
From: Yakov Lurye	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25960

>>Math Doesn't Add up On Short Interest. Peter, you are asking good questions. My guesses (and I am only guessing) are as follows: 1)The official float numbers provide only the low estimate of the number of shares available for trade. My assumption is that bondholders and their brokers were able to find stock to borrow "outside the float". I am sure plenty of CYMI stock is on deposit as a collateral. Such shares are formally not the part of the float, but could be made available for loans. The company or its employees may have a line of credit secured by stock. Banking institutions holding insiders' CYMI shares as a collateral can lend them out, especially if the borrower holds a convertible bond. Also, Sep.30 reports show some funds holding a significant long position in CYMI (to the tune of 4M shares). Some of these funds are managed by brokerage houses. If the fund managers plan to keep their long position through the techs decline, they could lend their shares to related brokers for trading (shorting the stock and covering later at a lower price). This is just a guess - I am not sure if this is an acceptable practice. 2) The daytrading volume in CYMI is not directly related to the size of the float - there is a delay between actual trades and settlement, so if somebody buys and sells the same amount of shares, the share distribution between net buyers and net sellers is not affected at all. I am not sure that these are reasonable explanations, but they seem to make CYMI share price performance after the bond issue more plausible: (a) Additional 3.4 million shares were sold into the market, resulting in a rapid price drop. Very approximately, the "float value" before the bond issue was $47*6.6m = $310m. With additional 3.4m shares made available, "fair" share price became $310m/(6.6m+3.4m) = $31 - pretty close to share price before the earnings. (b) On top of it, the whole sector was devalued through October-November. Virtually every semi equip stock is 35%-40% off its peak (some even more), so CYMI's current price of $19.25 is very much in line with the rest of the sector under my "float value" theory. To a degree, long-term CYMI holders got screwed by the issuance of debentures. A lot of people (me included) did buy CYMI before Oct.24 hoping for good earnings and unaware of the bond issue. They were disappointed, but buying CYMI at 30 (as I did) turned out to be no better nor worse than buying AMAT pre-split. If Asian fears are overdone, we'll all do fine in the long run. Strategically, CYMI is in a very good position to benefit from the drive towards improved efficiency. All the new buyers below $20 are getting a great value IMHO - although the same can be said about TER at 32, etc. Happy thanksgiving.

To: Asymmetric who wrote (10628)	11/28/1997 1:02:00 AM
From: ben luong	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

I think many investors are buying cymer shares on margin, which gives brokers the right to lend cymer shares out to shorters (at least for the portion of the shares you bought using borrowed money). This can explain what happens a few weeks ago when the stock tanks to below 19 and the share price was still dropping - people who brought on margin got margin calls so they had to sell cymer shares to meet their margin requirement. The shares shorted can still be traded like regular shares - they are just phantom shares created without stock certificates. I am not sure how NASDAQ reports their share volume. I think that even shares change hand between market makers can also count as trading volume, which creates an illusion that cymer stocks are very liquid despite cymer's float of only 6+ millions. For a growing company like cymer, shorters know that cymer won't buy back their shares in the open market because they need lot of cash to fund their working capital and equipment. This will create less chance that shorters will be called to buy back their shorted shares. Convertible bonds are a big no-no to cymer shareholders. But I think cymer issues convertible bonds (to fund their expansion) so they can pay less interest than if they issue regular bonds, which will probably have a B to BBB rating and hence higher interest rate. This is bad for investors in a short term. But in a long term, this tells me that management is confident that the stock price will eventually go up to trigger the conversion. Another possibility is that arbitrators establish a long position using option (by buying calls and selling puts at the same striking price) and short the equivalent number of shares of stock. Since the time premium of the put options are higher than that of the call options (this is particularly true a few weeks ago), the arbs actually establish the long position with a lower purchase price (strike price - (put price - call price)) than the price they short the stock. They pocket the difference as profit. Sooner or later at one of these option expiration dates, they arbs will close out their positions by buying back the shorted shares. Let's see if this actually occurs. the stock