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Microcap & Penny Stocks : APA optics...APAT...very interesting..any thoughts....... -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: craig crawford who wrote (225)	11/27/1997 3:35:00 PM
From: Duane L. Olson	Respond to of 342

Hello again, Crag. I took the liberty of re-posting your "2 Terabits/Sec System" on a few other threads.. great article. Between you and Ed, we have some pretty good expertise on "shorting smart" on the thread. I do it myself whenever the market gets overbought becaue it seems like such a simple way to make a few fast bucks. Avoiding some of the basic caveats that you and Ed point out, however, can put one in a "difficult' (how about "stupid"?) position real fast, IMHO.. Let's say APAT comes out with a real barn-burner of a WDM which Quest is going to install on 13,000 miles of new fiber.. Would you want to be standing on the RR tracks when that train came rolling??? OK, I'll stick to "difficult" for that position <g> dlo

To: craig crawford who wrote (225)	11/27/1997 8:28:00 PM
From: Sir Auric Goldfinger	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 342

AH HA (as Oddjob said when he found the fraudulently placed golfball)- someone who understands a bit more than most on this thread. In fact, you are correct about the limited market makers-three at the moment. Makes it particularly tough to put on more of a position when the makers trade 200 shares between them to show a move up for the morning and then move their quotes down a 1/4- so I can't get that uptick I need. Also quite difficult when market makers back away from the size they are quoting. I do notice that the big dog MMKR in this stock used to quote 4,200 and is now down to 2,200, but he won't stand by it. The Short data is from the end of October, I can assure you it's even more now. The stock ain't that hard to borrow either. As for taking it up higher, that's fine, the higher the discontinuity with reality, the more gravity begins to set in and more radar screens that it gets on. Valuation does end up playing a role at some point. Compare APAT's P/book,P/Sales and P/E (earnings-smoething APAT deosn't seem to produce) to Ciena (they're very similar-read prior postings), THE WDM player who's done everything right and who's stock is now starting to come under short pressure because Lucent has begun that old competive thing of lowering price) and lack of any real news (I mean when will the Aberdeen facility actually ship any products and at what yield and who will actually buy them in quantity given the competing players and their ability to market and stand behind their product???) How come none of the boyz who've done the "due diligence" ever debates the valuation point? Or the lack of shipping competitive product? If the rest of the thread thinks they've got someone who can't take the pain, they should examine VSNR (Visioneer), ISCO (Illinois Superconductor -very similar in terms of its denoument to what APAT is lining up for. Similar in that no apparent fraud by mangement, just huge overvaluation and attempted market maker manipulation) and, best of all SOLVQ (SOLV-EX second only to BRE X as an overhyped fraud). I've been there and have won many times. The difference with those and APAT is that I've not writen yet on it.(Perhaps this thread will become the medium and the message) When I started ISCO there was less than 1% short (MAY, 97) and 3 MMKRs-it is now clearly toast. You've read it here first. With the new short interest increase in late November and into December, the stock will definately hit Hoenig's Short Alert and more players will register to make the stock. I am in no hurry and have a fairly high average price and can box at any time. AS well, 'tis but a small portion of equity in the portfolio. Obviously, this thread has become too interesting from an academic standpoint to just leave the stock boxed... In fact, there has been the thin end of a wedge with Instinet (INCA) and Bloomberg (BTRD)trades starting to show up, but in fact most of that appears to be MMKRs using the anonyminity of that medium to hide their activities from each other (no honor amongst theives). This, of course along with some of the wholesalers registering and perhaps a few others that break local cabals will increase the denominator in the equation. Of course, I do expect some of those with mice cajones to start SOES trading through ISLD, but that only helps ruin the day of the MMKRs and give the rest of us more liquidity. Shorting a stock without much liquidity initally is part of the price of getting short something that has enormous downside potential and is not yet crowded. And so it goes and where it goes no one knows.

To: craig crawford who wrote (225)	11/30/1997 3:45:00 AM
From: Duane L. Olson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 342

Craig, I had to chase down that info you posted on the ABerdeen products. Will re-post to keep the info handy: The Aberdeen facility will produce Wavelength Division Multiplexed (WDM) optical modulator components and, ultimately, completely integrated units. To take advantage of current market opportunities, the Company has decided to manufacture and introduce its components first and then produce the integrated units following successful testing of commercial units. WDM optical modulator products were selected for APA's entry into product fabrication because of the vast marketing potential presented by the fast growing fiber optic communications industry. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Tus commercial potential. The innovative device, now in the final stages of product development, offers the opportunity to dramatically multiply the capacity of fiber optics, since several communications channels are created within a single fiber using only one laser. APA anticipates that the technology will be introduced initially as WDM modulator components, followed by the complete optical modulator. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ "The WDM optical modulator is the primary focus of the Company's product development activities at this time, given its enormous commercial potential" ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ With its sound base in Aluminum Gallium Nitride (AlGaN) technologies, APA will continue active development of three promising devices, the Ultraviolet (UV) detector, both UV and blue lasers, and transistors. R&D activities at APA Optics are targeted, in large measure, on the development of high quality materials that may be used in fabricating optoelectronic devices. With vertically integrated in-house research and development capabilities, including microelectronic fabrication and test and package facilities, the Company is a leader in the development of AlGaN/InGaN (Indium Gallium Nitride) materials systems. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ GaN Transistor Development GaN transistor development activities at APA, funded by the U.S. Navy and the Strategic Defense Initiative Office, are aimed at developing needed fabrication technologies for transistors capable of operating at frequencies as high as 40GHz and temperatures up to 500o C. This should significantly reduce the size and weight of amplifiers used in device applications, such as radars, mobile phones and satellites. With this strong projected product from a company the size of APAT, the potential certainly seems signficant. These products serve one of the fastest growing segment of the Telecom market, and there appears to be room for several competitiors. From a rather small base, the growth rate could be highly rapid for APAT -- at least that's the reason I'm getting the cash into the stock now.. dlo