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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (3606)	11/29/1997 12:10:00 AM
From: SemiBull	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

Ian, After looking at your numbers, SFAM seems much more attractive than LRCX if you put stock in the LTG estimates and therefore the PEG. My approach in stock picking has always focussed on PEG first and PSR second. Having said that, SFAM wins on the first test and "places" in the second. However, under my approach, LRCX is the lagard on PEG, though their PSR is the best of this group of 4. I guess "beauty is in the eyes of the beholder" even if she's been looking ragged recently. :~) Just one man's spin...SemiBull PS - Still long on SFAM, as well as SMTL, SVGI, KLAC, EGLS, COHU and AMAT

To: Ian@SI who wrote (3606)	11/29/1997 8:02:00 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Respond to of 10921

Geez, Ian, I intentionally toned down my post so that people would not view it as a "tout" as opposed to a suggestion and here you come along and convey "tout" status to it <g>. On the other hand, if SFAM goes to $20, I will be touting it <g>. I could not agree with you more re LRCX and I already have a good position in this issue for the reasons you stated. However, as time marches forward with respect to LRCX, I am becoming increasingly concerned that management will not have its operational improvements on line before the next cycle peaks. One of the bigger risks with LRCX is that it will still be a good value investment then as it is now. Besides, CMP is only a small part of the LRCX plan via ONTK and I do not have any indication that the market has accepted the ONTK belt sander CMP approach at this point. SFAM is an earnings story much like CYMI (again, SFAM has other products besides CMP). But I view SFAM as better priced now than CYMI currently given its earnings potential. SFAM has a history of beating estimates with its conservative management and I think the street may have the earnings estimates for CY 98 pegged too low. I think that SFAM will exceed .49 eps estimate for its last quarter due to be reported in December and with a run rate above over .49 eps and explosive CMP growth due to < .25u movement, I think the company will surpass $2.05 eps for CY 98. Disclosure: I did establish a position in the company on Wednesday and Friday. Also, there is the risk for push outs resulting from SE Asia but I view this as a short term risk (6 months) in nature and I think Mr. Market has more than discounted this risk in the price of the stock.

To: Ian@SI who wrote (3606)	11/29/1997 8:01:00 PM
From: Donald L. Dominicci	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

Ian Over 50% of my portfolio is in the Semi Eppt sector .As a result much of the blood on the streets the last 2 months came from me. However looking back 2 years I am a super star. I have not read anything meaningful that the far east fiasco will have a major impact on the eqpt. Cos. In1998 As INFRASTRUCTURE says you either put up your money in the ""NO LIMIT POKER GAME"" i.e. ( move to the new technology) or your out of the game. I believe the highest growth in 98 will be the following. 1. TAP Test Assembly & Packaging I own KLIC 2. Automation I own ASYT 3. CMP I own IPEC & SFAM 4. DUV Very sorry to say I own CYMER I agree with Justin that it is not realistic to compare AMAT & LRCK ratios with SFAM & IPEC on the CMP market CMP will not have any noticeable impact on either Co. in the 90s. I do think AMAT will be a tough competitor but CMP will still be a drop in the bucket. I don't think LRCK/ONTK will ever make an impact. SFAM is the cream of the crop in CMP. Good Luck Don