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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (10577)	11/29/1997 7:38:00 AM
From: robnhood	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Hi Bill,,,The lower hi's concern me ,,each drop seems to be hit with the buy the dippers,,,I don't know if these are the same people who could'nt wait for dips before,,but as they approach the place where the last dip started they seem to lose a lot of enthusiasm,,,rather than go after them , they seem to be taking a more cowardly approach and going after utilities and food stocks,,,this gives the impression that they are not all that confident,,unless they think they're scooping a bargain,,their determination of which, is the recent higher price...If they are not willing to pay higher , who is,,,for I do believe it was the same people , only in a different frame of mind ,that made the recent prices higher.. russell

To: William H Huebl who wrote (10577)	11/29/1997 7:56:00 AM
From: robnhood	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Bill,,,getting off before the cliff,,,last paragraph...https://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=2834355 russell

To: William H Huebl who wrote (10577)	12/1/1997 8:32:00 PM
From: Lazarus_Long	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 94695

BK + TA = CRAP <<Before you start, what I am about to do is show you can do the same thing with TA as you can statistics... so that's the caveat! >> As far as I know, no mathematical or statistical (or even cause-and-effect) basis has ever been demonstrated for most of TA. I say most because I want to exclude some that deals with economics. A typical argument about TA goes like this: You find a chart that you say justifies some TA claim. I search around and find two or three like it that don't perform as predicted. You say, "Ah, but my chart X's and yours Y's." So I spend more time finding two more that X. The response is, "But mine has Z!" I find.... ad infinitum- -or at least until I give up in. Then you claim victory. This is proof by exhaustion, but not in the mathematical sense. If you can produce good studies that support TA, do so. << The final case, the one I like is the start in 6 months which I believe will happen. A TA reason might be that the tests happened 21, 8 and 5 months apart... surely Fibonnacci numbers with the next test in Jan, then Mar then April and then failure. >> Come on, Bill, this is stocks, not number theory. Is there any logical reason that Fibonnaci numbers enter here? What have Fibonnaci numbers got to do with this? Why not the roots of a tenth degree equation fitted to the curve? Or, if we are to use numerology, why not astrology too? How about witchcraft? And that describes TA exactly. It has as much basis as numerology or astrology. Do you believe that some squiggles on a chart make some guy buy a stock who knows nothing about TA? The stock market is not physics. No equations or laws can describe it reliably. The stock market is part of HISTORY and is part of all those surprising, crazy, unpredicatable, HUMAN events. Nobody is all that good at predicting history. Not reliably. Who predicted what is probably the most important event of the last half of this century- -the fall of the Soviet Union? Sometimes you get it right and often not. << To my mind, the bear still slumbers but it is a fitfull sleep, one to be soon disturbed by the reality of an economics lesson gone awry. >> Repeatedly in this thread, someone has said "BK starts now (or soon)." And it doesn't. The last cause was to be the SEA mess. Now Y2K has been nominated. A weak reed is better than none, I guess. By any reasonable standard, this bull should be steak by now. It isn't. Up another 190 points today. The US economy is perking along fine. Asia and Y2K don't appear capable of killing it. And, yes, at some poiint it's going to break and fall 20%, 40%,... If someone keeps predicting it, they'll eventually be right. A stopped clock is right twice a day. The hard problem is telling what time it really is.