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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lazarus_Long who wrote (10707)	12/1/1997 10:06:00 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Correct and also Wrong - shatered expectation drives a market to the abys. I would agree with that fundamentals are driving a market but on the same token manias or lack of make a market go to the sky or stay flat for no reason with same fundamentals. From a fundamental pont of view we are toast even if the US consumer tinks we are not. the "Global economy " who helped lower inflation is bringing on us over 2 billion guests who want to share the "American Dream" in their countries and NOW!! We it does not work, as Germany has proven on a smaller scale and now SE Asia and India Brasil etc. is proving on an MAJOR scale!! Net result BIG BROBLEMS - political unrest which can not be bought with money or a substantial economic slowdown all over. Well both bode bad for OVERVALUED stocks. BWDIK Haim

To: Lazarus_Long who wrote (10707)	12/1/1997 10:48:00 PM
From: Simon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

And that describes TA exactly. It has as much basis as numerology or astrology.>>> You are correct to a degree; however, I saw something I have seen before and shorted 200 WLA on Nov. 24. I even got greedy and covered the short today. I mentioned it on Mohan's thread on Nov. 24th. There was no interest. I was surprised to see a 25 pt drop today, as I suppose were quite a few others. <<<The stock market is not physics. No equations or laws can describe it reliably.>>> I do not see how mathamatics can predicit movement of stocks except perhaps vol. figures to some extent. How can you write a formula that reflects what thousands of people and all the Fund managers are thinking. As they say in the Super Bowl: "Go with what done got us here". So far that means buy the dips. If you done fine so far, you should have enough to take a small loss if the situation changes.

To: Lazarus_Long who wrote (10707)	12/2/1997 7:04:00 AM
From: William H Huebl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Hi James, Frustrating, isn't it... trying to find something that really WORKS. I am really not the defender of the "cause," if you will. (As it were?) However, a good book for you to beg, borrow or steal (God forbid you buy something like this): The Visual Investor : How to Spot Market Trends by John J. Murphy, John L. Murphy List: $29.95 Our Price: $20.96 You Save: $8.99 (30%) Availability: This title usually ships within 24 hours. Cd-Rom Edition Hardcover Published by John Wiley & Sons Publication date: November 1, 1996 Dimensions (in inches): 9.33 x 6.30 x 1.29 ISBN: 0471144479 The only points I can address are that Fib numbers supposedly represent the "natural" order of things and SOMETIMES they are valuable in seeing where possible turning points are. Secondly, if you have picked up my Barron's based forecast each Sunday (except for 2 I was away on vacation recently) you may want to change your mind on chucking the baby out with the bath water. BWDIK? Regards, Bill

To: Lazarus_Long who wrote (10707)	12/2/1997 7:10:00 AM
From: GROUND ZERO™	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Hi James, I respectfully submit that, just because you cannot see the curvature of the earth, it doesn't mean it ain't round. Permit me to explain. All I ever use are my technical indicators over the past twenty or so years and I've made a fortune and retired. Oh, there are those who may not use technicals properly and therefore lend support to the argument that such analysis of market behaviors is mere folly. What drives all markets are not supply and demand factors, but human perceptions of these factors. What we see in market price is the quantified measurement of that perception. The chart displays the historic perception and sentiment. We are talking about mob psychology. A mob is predictable once you understand what motivates them. What motivates the mob in these markets is fear and greed according to those percieved interpretations of market forces. My record stands on its own at this thread. I post all my trade positions as I take them based only on my technicals. I honestly don't care what the fundamentals are, since the market factors everything into price for me. Have a great week. GZ