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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Phil M who wrote (3611)	11/29/1997 1:18:00 PM
From: SemiBull	Respond to of 10921

Phil M., <<Another stock that seems to be undervalued is COHU? Am I on the right track or do you believe there are other roadblocks which may drop the price of these stocks even further?>> Yes, IMHO you are on the right track. But it is wise to pick an investment strategy and stock with it. If you are a momentum (ie. short term) investor, follow the rules that go with that investing approach - I am not one so I cannot help you. I am long term hold investor looking for reasonably valued stocks...somewhat similar to Cary Salsberg approach. I rarely trade in and out of a stock. Ideally, I'd like to hold a stock for three to four years - gives the Street enough time to first find out about a stock, get over-hyped about a stock, trash a stock (where we are know), followed by the "happy ending." By and large, my picks were value driven when I jumped in back in late 95 - 96. They transitioned to growth stocks (maybe a bit too early - ahead of earnings) and may have now returned to the value classification - assuming the problems in SEA do not cause a recession here in the States. I, maybe foolishly believe, that all my equip plays are undervalued today - of course keeping a 2-ish year time horizon in perpsective. I believe most of the companies I hold stock in (ie. - AMAT, COHU and even SFAM and SMTL) that have proven themselves over time. I like management in all my semiequip picks - which is a significant consideration before I pick a horse IMHO. One stock I am looking currently but have yet to buy into is CFMT. I am sincerely impressed with their management and their products seem to fit a good niche. Good growth potential. Anyway, hope my ramblings helped.....SemiBull

To: Phil M who wrote (3611)	11/29/1997 6:04:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Respond to of 10921

Phil, The PE of 15 for AMAT comes from taking earning for the next 4 quarters as the divisor; the range of PEs that you're quoting is looking back at what actually happened. Caution is always prudent when dealing with estimates. They seldom remain the same for long, but do go up and down. If you're bearish due to Japan, SEA, etc, then current forward estimates may be overly optimistic. Yes, you do seem to be on the right track, Justa W, I have been suitably chastised. but "tout" only took 4 letters; whereas "presented for our consideration" takes a lot more. :-) Ian.

To: Phil M who wrote (3611)	12/1/1997 11:40:00 AM
From: Michael C Quesnel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Hi Phil, you said "from my novice viewpoint your list of co's have a below avg PE in comparison with the historical numbers." Beware of using low PEs as a positive indicator with cyclical companies. There is a real tendency for their PEs to be lowest when the companies are over-valued (when the companies are at the top of a cycle and printing money) , and for their PEs to be highest (even negative) when the companies are under-valued (because they are at the bottom of a cycle). For example, the PEs of AMAT, KLIC, LRCX, etc. were in or near the single digits at the end of 1995. Look at a long time chart to see what their stocks did. Mike