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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Larry Myers who wrote (24956)	11/29/1997 1:09:00 PM
From: Captain James T. Kirk	Respond to of 61433

MacroWorld Forcasts are Turning Around Fast !! Co:ASND - ASCEND COMMUNICATION,$/share(US) Exchange:OTC MACROWORLD(tm) 7-DAY OUTLOOK 11/28/97 ------------------------------------------------------------ Latest Data: 11/28/97 closed at $24.94, up 0.50. This is within the -0.68 average daily change. ------------------------------------------------------------ 7-day Alert: see Alert on 5week Outlook ------------------------------------------------------------ Forecast Summary: There is a 70% chance of being Higher in 7 days. Most likely 12/05/97 level is $26.19, a 5.0% increase vs yesterday's $24.94. -------------------------------------------------- \| 70% confidence range\| \| Forecast Closing --------------------\| \| Days $/share Change High Low \| \|------------------------------------------------\| \| 11/29/97 Sat \| \| 11/30/97 Sun \| \| 12/01/97 25.53 0.59 26.42 24.64 \| \| 12/02/97 25.93 0.40 26.86 25.00 \| \| 12/03/97 26.00 0.07 26.96 25.04 \| \| 12/04/97 26.01 0.01 27.01 25.01 \| \| 12/05/97 26.17 0.16 27.20 25.14 \| -------------------------------------------------- Co:ASND - ASCEND COMMUNICATION,$/share(US) Exchange:OTC MACROWORLD(tm) 5-WEEK OUTLOOK 11/28/97 ------------------------------------------------------------ Latest Week: 11/28/97 averaged $24.59, down 0.67. This is within the -2.91 average weekly change. The weekly model indicates that this is an exceptionally Low $/share! ------------------------------------------------------------ 5-week Alert: "B" rating for an Increase (possible Long position). StopLoss at $23.06 (review any Short positions). - watch future reports for signal reversal - ------------------------------------------------------------ Forecast Summary: There is a 85% chance of being Higher in 5 weeks. Most likely 1/02/98 level is $34.44, a 38.1% increase vs latest $24.94/share. -------------------------------------------------- \| 70% confidence range\| \| Forecast Average --------------------\| \| Week of $/share Change High Low \| \|------------------------------------------------\| \| 12/05/97 25.56 0.97 26.90 24.22 \| \| 12/12/97 28.19 2.63 29.92 26.46 \| \| 12/19/97 30.82 2.63 32.94 28.70 \| \| 12/26/97 33.45 2.63 35.96 30.94 \| \| 01/02/98 34.44 0.99 37.34 31.54 \| -------------------------------------------------- However, the Daily model's outlook is Up. Co:ASND - ASCEND COMMUNICATION,$/share(US) Exchange:OTC MACROWORLD(tm) 4-MONTH OUTLOOK 11/26/97 ------------------------------------------------------------ Latest Month: Oct'97 averaged $32.43, down 7.60. This is larger than the -5.53 average monthly change. The monthly model indicates that this is an exceptionally Low $/share! ------------------------------------------------------------ 4-month Alert: "B" rating for an Increase (possible Long position). StopLoss at $22.63 (review any Short positions). - watch future reports for signal reversal - ------------------------------------------------------------ Forecast Summary: There is a 85% chance of being Higher in 4 months. Most likely Feb'98 level is $40.18, a 64.4% increase vs latest $24.44/share. -------------------------------------------------- \| 70% confidence range\| \| Forecast Average --------------------\| \| Months $/share Change High Low \| \|------------------------------------------------\| \| Nov'97 24.83 -7.60 26.13 23.53 \| \| Dec'97 30.36 5.53 32.82 27.90 \| \| Jan'98 34.65 4.29 38.26 31.04 \| \| Feb'98 40.18 5.53 44.95 35.41 \| -------------------------------------------------- However, the Weekly model's outlook is Up. The above report is based on mathematical calculations and, as such, no investment decision should be based solely on its conclusions.

To: Larry Myers who wrote (24956)	11/29/1997 1:39:00 PM
From: Gary Korn	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 61433

There is just too much competition in networking now to justify a takeover at the price needed to make it happen. At $40 a share the cost would be $8 billion. Who's willing to pay that. Larry, LU paid 9 x sales for Livingston, or 650MM (sales are per the 14D available on EDGAR). If some entity were to pay 8 x sales for ASND, that would be 8 x 1.2B = $9.6B. Divided by 200MM shares (per the recent ASND 10Q available on EDGAR), this translates to $48/share. CPQ will have the currency. It seeks authorization for 2Billion new shares, about 1/2 million of which are required for a stock split. That leaves some 1.5B shares. The CPQ 14-C (available on EDGAR), states that some of these shares may be used for acquiring businesses. Anyway, if CPQ were trading at $60/share with 750MM shares, then it should trade at $30/share with 1.5B shares. If an acquisition were non-dilutive, the remaining 1.5B shares would be worth some $45Billion, more than enough to pick up ASND or some other significant networker. Incidentally, if CPQ were not planning something significant, why would it require so many shares to be authorized? It wants 2Billion, yet it needs only about 1/2 million to allow for the 12/31 stock split. Gary Korn P.S. Does anyone know how many times sales ASND paid for CSCC?

To: Larry Myers who wrote (24956)	11/29/1997 6:48:00 PM
From: swrdfsh	Respond to of 61433

>>Use my stock as collateral and borrow the money. This way I would still be able to sell the stock at the takeover price and then pay off the loan. The interest on the loan would be nothing compared to my gain on the sale of the stock.<< Larry Myers This is exactly the right question. I don't see how insider selling at such severly depressed prices can be a bullish sign. Insiders are expressing no confidence this stock will see even $30 in the next twelve months! If they did believe it would, they would have followed the above strategy instead of selling now. The only excuse I could imagine would be if there was some sort of SEC prohibition against insiders borrowing against their shares. Maybe Gary Korn knows the answer to that. If not, any insider sales at these levels are very worrisome, hardly bullish, and no indicator of a merger. swrdfsh