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Gold/Mining/Energy : ATPG Shareholders -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Area51 who wrote (221)	8/30/2012 4:47:49 PM
From: thatsnotluck	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3620

<<If they can get production to aprox 39,000 BOEpd by the end of year (and I know it's a big if), wouldn't ATPG have sufficient cash flow (@90 - 100 oil) to service their debt, and fund enough capex to maintain production at 39K. >> production at that level would be over a million bbl per month, call it $100 million gross revenues? if they can get there and maintain it, things look pretty rosy IMHO. management cash flow projections suggest they neither make it to $100 million per month in gross revenues, nor maintain revenues at anything close to that level, if i am interpreting the numbers correctly. in following this company for several years, the future production always seems to be estimated as current plus flow rate of new projects, but that nasty decline rate has made it difficult for them to do much more than run in place. Clipper looks to flow large, but not flow long, if i compare the reserves to the postulated production rate.

To: Area51 who wrote (221)	8/30/2012 5:00:11 PM
From: billgatesisevil	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3620

Servicing the payment of the coupon on the bonds is a somewhat moot issue now. After all, those come due in a couple/several years. Bk judges do not like to have a company present a POR (Plan of Reorganization), have the court and so on approve it, and then have the company back in court with a chapter 22 real quick. Stuff happens, so judges understand that sometimes they may see a company back in court after a span of years. But the POR will have to provide for a credible going concern after exit. I think that everyone from the second lien debt and down in priority are only going to get shares in newco along with some warrants and or a rights issue. jmho. It is the normal outcome of any bk that I have been a party too. The most senior debt usually gets new paper at the going rate. "Annoyance claims" (claims under 1K$ from trade folks) usually get paid off in cash at 100%. Everyone else gets shares in the new company. I think UHaul was a different outcome, but that was because the bk happened due to some inter-founder squabbling, but I did not follow it that closely. Frankly, this company is where it is because PB screwed up the cash flow bigtime. Hopefully, no monster cockroaches around, but if he was misdirecting funds, he might be talking to his own lawyer in the near future about a criminal and civil defense. Too bad the new CEO this summer didn't take. It might have inspired enough confidence that ATPG would not be in the mess that it is in at the moment.