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Gold/Mining/Energy : ATPG Shareholders -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mrpanick who wrote (233)	8/30/2012 11:36:21 PM
From: Robohogs	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3620

Lots of cashflow leakages though. Look at the cashflow forecast. I assume 20-25% of PV10 goes to others. Concerning. Jon

To: mrpanick who wrote (233)	8/31/2012 7:48:29 AM
From: thatsnotluck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3620

<<The 8k shows a PV 10 of proved and probable reserves of 5.4 bil. That's with a value of 0 for stuff like their investment in Israel. It's my understanding that the $5.4 bil estimate also excludes the value of their investment in infrastructure such as oil pipelines and terminals.>> it also excludes income tax expense. the last part of this is something i am confused about...does infrastructure enter the PV10 calculation, and if so, in what manner? there was a vague reference in the 3rd party report to including something, but it is not clear to me just what. sounded almost like a residual depreciated value, but not sure. does anyone know? as to the PV10 value...we all know that is mostly undeveloped, and we all know that ATPG has a, shall we say, inconsistent record of delivering on time and on budget (trying to be charitable...actually i think their record on this is very consistent in the wrong direction). so, looking at it as an investor, a lender or a buyer, if you were offered a choice between the following three alternatives, each of which would be at the same price or loan amount, which would you choose? A. Proven producing reserves with PV10 of 5.4B B. Proven undeveloped reserves with PV10 of 5.5B C. Probable reserves with PV10 of 5.6B yes, i would choose A as well. the PV10 numbers are not risked, and the reserves and their development are not riskless. a 2P of 5.4B, even if you adjust for taxes, is not worth 100 cents on the dollar IMHO. of course it does need to be for us to be reasonably happy. the question is how many cents on the dollar are these reserves worth?