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Gold/Mining/Energy : ATPG Shareholders -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Area51 who wrote (248)	8/31/2012 12:44:17 PM
From: billgatesisevil	Respond to of 3620

Management as insiders cannot act on any claims they might have, e.g. PB's common. I suspect they can pledge them to an EC, but maybe not. The certainly cannot buy or sell anything. I will feel better when the CFO and PB are no longer in the employ of this company.

To: Area51 who wrote (248)	8/31/2012 2:00:24 PM
From: thatsnotluck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3620

i think you are under-estimating the amount of debt that ranks ahead of second lien on down. Titan loan for example is presumably secured by Titan infrastructure, and i think most of that will still be there. One of the other (Gomez maybe?) looks to be for life of the assets. ORRI/NPI should get paid down, but i think there is still 150-200 million left at the end of 18 months. (i am far from certain on this, but one should not neglect the interest component when estimating pay downs IMHO). it looks to me like not much of DIP beyond interest is repaid, maybe 50 or so. all told, i think there is still well over a billion in front of us 2nd lien folks at exit. now if we move to the preferred, at exit the 2nd lien stuff should be around 1.8 billion due to interest not being paid. i won't even bother for the common. now if one is to discount the 2nd lien for a couple of years interest to exit (maybe a bit less) to get current value for excess of your 1.4 B over a billion or so of debt in front, i am not sure one gets even as much as where it is trading for, let alone half. given the risk i would call a 50 cents on the dollar pay off at exit roughly a fair return for taking the risk. can we get the 2nd lien pay out above 50 cents and closer to 75 cents or a buck on the dollar? that makes it very interesting, but the only way i get there with what i have at the moment is if we have a significant increase in oil prices. of course if the PV10 can be believed (i have no clue whether they can or not), the values should be a lot more than the 1.4B number you mention. does anyone have any feel for what BK judges have used as exit value in past BKs relative to PV10 numbers?