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Strategies & Market Trends : Candlestick Charting--The unknown indicator -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ed Frye who wrote (839)	11/30/1997 11:46:00 PM
From: ftth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1589

Hi Ed, As far as ARSW, its chart looks like a zillion others right now, i.e. mostly market-driven with a couple of weakening rally attempts. It may be a fair short candidate if it rallys back to the 39-40 resistance area, at which time candlesticks could be utilized to confirm the indecision/weakness when it approaches the resistance. Since most individual stocks are market-driven at the moment, the use of candlestick patterns which would normally have a high probability of success (in an up market) is inappropriate at the present time--in my opinion (but for what you paid for this opinion you could get several more). For UNPH, it too is having trouble exceeding old highs, but has been slightly stronger than most over the past 5-6 weeks. Still, I see no reason to initiate new long positions given the overall state of things, plus you probably have a nice gain this year. Probabilities are just too low right now with most of the growth stock universe in a downtrend. I believe that you will become very discouraged if you try to utilize candlesticks for long positions at the present time. Few TA techniques work as well as they are capable of working in an environment like this. Patience will be rewarded with a strong up move in the future, at which time the reliability of candlesticks is significantly better. A good analogy of what you can expect candles to show from a broad market breakout after a period of weakness happened in early May of this year. dh

To: Ed Frye who wrote (839)	12/1/1997 9:42:00 PM
From: ftth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1589

Hi Ed: Along the same line as my earlier message, here are some blurbs from Nison's books which I agree with wholeheartedly: "You must consider the overall market condition when trading with candles. The overall technical picture should be viewed as more important than an individual candle pattern." and "A trader must wait for time to ripen, waiting for just the right moment. In other words, just because there is a candle pattern does not mean that the 'time is ripe' for a trade. dh