To: Frank A. Coluccio who wrote (41748 ) 10/21/2012 6:12:30 AM From: axial Respond to of 46821 We repeat the same cycles with cellular, PCS, WiFi at 2.4 GHz and WiMax at 5 GHz. The discussion of tradeoffs between coverage, infill, engineering, picocells, penetration, fresnel zones, foliage, transmit power, interference, throughput, backhaul, spectrum and money never ends. "The spectrum debate has been a feature of this thread for years" ---"Will it be 3G/4G/LTE and their heirs, or unlicensed bands using WiFi-like technologies supported by ubiquitous backhaul? Will the latter unlicensed applications, which are currently being used as a crutch by supporting offload for the former, at some point become the dominant approach used?" That's the real question, isn't it? WiFi was marketed as everyman's radio, and its muni implementation was fought vigorously by telcos. Now we've come to an interesting split in the historical path; the telco tracks double back. Having failed to arrest the progress of everyman's radio, they now seek to co-opt it. As you state - and as was predicted - they're already offloading traffic to WiFi, contrary to claims that mobile infrastructure buildout was matched to expected traffic growth. In fact, they've barely kept up, as the first iPhone demonstrated. At least some of the complaints on this thread and elsewhere about spotty coverage, dropped calls and lousy QOS can be attributed to underspending on mobile infrastructure. "I think it's fairly reasonable to assume that the larger mobile operators will take every measure at their disposal to ensure this doesn't happen, unless they find ways to take control of the latter, which implies monetizing it, too." Long ago, ftth asked about the business model for CR. What was it? Formative processes affecting CR, and dependent outcomes are now in the mix. Decisions on spectrum use will change the dynamics. --- WiFi has been an enormous success. Equipment is reliable, setup and use not too complex and cost continues to fall. An aggregation of private and public sponsors have proven capable of building and maintaining such networks with enough redundancy that throughput can be reliable. Infill keeps improving. Silicon Valley challenged the incumbents, but the battle is changing. Sooner or later it'll come down to policy. No telling what will happen but we know where the lobbyists will be. There'll lots of maneuvering and covert alliances on other fronts, aimed at extracting maximal rent for spectrum use that technology enables at far lower cost. So, will anyone represent the public interest? Place your bets. Jim