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Politics : View from the Center and Left -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KyrosL who wrote (205670)	10/23/2012 9:50:53 AM
From: Sam	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 542155

On the other hand the debates have established Romney as a credible candidate and reduced his negatives. The key will be turnout. If the mass of registered voters that greatly benefit from Obama policies but usually do not vote, do not turn up in reasonable numbers, Obama may lose. That is pretty much what I think, although I disagree about a market sell off not having an effect--if it is sharp and makes the headlines day after day, it will increase uneasiness about the economy, and that should increase the vote for the challenger, especially one like Romney who has sold his "expertise" on the economy by repeating over and over and over again "I know what to do, I know how to grow the economy, I've done it before, I'll do it again." He has said this more times than Miller Lite Beer ads said "Tastes great, less filling." They both have about the same degree of intelligence and truth. Miller's campaign worked pretty well for years, Romney's campaign only has to work for a few months, with just a couple of weeks left. People hear that message so many times, it fills what passes for their brain, and affects their voting preferences. There is no other way to explain how an empty Etch-a-sketch man like Romney is so close to being elected president. Just listened to Matt Dowd say on Bloomberg that he thinks it is "increasingly likely" that Romney wins the popular vote and Obama wins the electoral vote. That Hamilton County outside of Cincinnati holds the key to the election--whoever gets his people out there the most will take Ohio which will decide the election. That gets a little too "wonky fine" for me -- a vote in Cleveland counts as much as a vote in Hamilton County in Ohio. But the crucial states at this point do seem to be Ohio, Nevada, Wisconsin, Iowa. Although, personally, I am not ready to write off Florida for Obama yet as Dowd and others seem to (maybe for professional reasons--they want a horserace to the finish line), and if he wins there, Romney is pretty much dead in the water. They have certainly sucked me into the horse race.