To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (96802 ) 11/29/2012 10:38:48 PM From: TobagoJack 1 Recommendation Respond to of 217551 notes from attendee, i quote, "By far the most interesting speaker at yesterday’s HKGCC Business Summit was Prof. Liu Mingkang, former Chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission. The main points he made were: The 18th Party Congress had highlighted two key goals:- the reform of the hukou (household registration) system; and - the search for a new growth model. The first of these was a “historic decision”; it recognized the reality that urbanization drove growth but increased income inequalities; facilitating mobility would diminish the gap between city rich and urban poor; The experience of the last decade had convinced China that it could not remain reliant on a growth model dependent on exports to Europe and North America; domestic consumption must be encouraged; at the same time the environment must be protected by aggressive pollution reduction targets; We should expect to see further reforms in the areas of market access, monetary policy and taxation; Market access would be increased across the board and “would be given greater transparency and predictability by establishing the rule of law ”; They would speed up liberalization of the interest rate; this was a prerequisite for freeing up the capital account and eventual convertibility of the RMB; Fiscal reform was essential to reduce exposure to the Urban Development Investment Corporations and the risks that their bad debts posed to the banking system; A key part of the reforms was that they must revisit the roles played by Government and Market, a challenge he noted that was common to many other Asian countries; All of the reforms would require the building up of skills and talents and China would be looking to the outside world for international experience including Hong Kong; The biggest “enemy to reform ” in China was vested interest groups; political consensus was needed to drive top-down change through to smooth implementation; The framework for reform was agreed: the People will have the final say; the Party would provide leadership; Rule of Law must prevail. On QE III, Liu noted that, unlike QE I and QE II, it was not time-limited and was targeted at solving the housing problem that had been the root cause of the crisis; however there was always a risk of leakage leading, on the one hand, to inflation and, on the other, to speculative activity; In handling a crisis he preferred identifying the root cause and acting quickly; short-term pain was better than sustained suffering; He was not optimistic about either a fiscal union or a banking union in Europe; given the complexity of differing national regulatory systems, a patient brick-building approach would be needed once an overarching strategy had been agreed. Comment Liu spoke with both candour and great confidence. He openly acknowledged that everybody in the room knew the problems caused by China’s very rapid development, but he seemed utterly convinced that the reforms would be implemented." unquote