Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Texas Instruments - Good buy now or should we wait? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert w fain who wrote (2293)	12/2/1997 4:21:00 PM
From: John Chen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6180

Robert, there is no TA in my number. Just a memory of TXN in Nov,95? the PE was around 6-8 (down from $80+ to $40+). Tom Kurlak of ML gave a estimate of TI's earning from $2 to $2.5. I picked the high numbers ie: $2.5 * 8 ---> $20. This only represent 'distressed sale' when one (or fund manager) gives up hope and forget it for awhile. The tech (except a few, like MSFT,DELL,CSCO) in general is in a ditch, ie 30-40% off the high. High tech growth also depend on the companies themselve (like TI, INTEL..) to push for higher performance and create a desire that one must have this, one must have that. Especially INTEL may be a victim of its own success. A very uncomfortable scenario for INTEL is that we may just have good enough 'power' for awhile, especially for consumer, those who surf, word-processing. Why P-II ...? Those $1000-$1500 are wonderful machines 6 months ago. I read Motley Fool (Yahoo) about how most industry keeps expanding capacity (like automobile, memory!!) even knowingly the price is in general downtrend. Nobody seems to find equibrillium point and just try to stay alive and go after each others throat. Anyway, I wish TXN won't go to that low. Between now and year-end, anything can happen. I think mid $30 is most probable. The problem is, there is no good/promising news for those analyst to play for awhile (3-6months).

To: robert w fain who wrote (2293)	12/2/1997 6:01:00 PM
From: Charlie Smith	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6180

Bob: Comments from the company this afternoon on Briefing.com: Texas Instruments (TXN) 47 5/16 -4 1/2: semiconductor/electronics maker says pricing pressure on chips is only a temporary problem. Expects pressure to continue over the next 2-3 months before recovering; believes that currency crisis in Asia will actually benefit the chip industry, as Korea cuts capacity; says concerns "misplaced" over impact of Asia crisis on the chip industry.... Regards

To: robert w fain who wrote (2293)	12/2/1997 9:24:00 PM
From: johnny boy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 6180

Robert, I'm likely to be as wrong as the next guy but my current thinking is this: 1) Asia negative scenario is dampening and will not be felt so much soon????? 2) We seem to be in one of those famous TXN slumps that may last until late Winter/early Spring??? 3) The upturns often begin in May/June and run up for 14 to 18 months where we'd see the tip of the wave prior to the next "crashlet"?? 4) Barring any sudden news, this scenario would not surprize me and I'm psychologically preparing myself for this. Bottom line, I really don't have a clue but this is a guess to be taken with a giant grain of salt. The theory of the day and subject to radical and unpredictable change. How's this grab you? Your thoughts? JB