SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Politics : President Barack Obama -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: tejek who wrote (128614)12/8/2012 5:50:49 PM
From: Road Walker  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 149317
 
If the fiscal cliff is avoided which is looking less and less likely, then we might see some acceleration of growth.

We need to trip over the fiscal curb, I think Obama knows that. Then we can move forward. But do the markets go F'ing crazy? I think so.



To: tejek who wrote (128614)12/8/2012 9:09:38 PM
From: Sr K  Respond to of 149317
 
Sep and Oct were revised down ~ 49,000

Still, it was a pleasant surprise.



To: tejek who wrote (128614)12/9/2012 9:20:41 AM
From: RetiredNow1 Recommendation  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 149317
 
Here's what the US should have done to solve the financial crisis, instead of giving bankers a pass and enriching the 1% with bailouts and criminal prosecution waivers.

-------------
The Icelandic Success Story

December 8, 2012

http://azizonomics.com/2012/12/08/the-icelandic-success-story/

Emotionally, I love Iceland’s financial policies since the crash of 2008:



Iceland went after the people who caused the crisis — the bankers who created and sold the junk products — and tried to shield the general population.

But what Iceland did is not just emotionally satisfying. Iceland is recovering, while the rest of the Western world — which bailed out the bankers and left the general population to pay for the bankers’ excess — is not.

Bloomberg reports:

Few countries blew up more spectacularly than Iceland in the 2008 financial crisis. The local stock market plunged 90 percent; unemployment rose ninefold; inflation shot to more than 18 percent; the country’s biggest banks all failed.This was no post-Lehman Brothers recession: It was a depression.Since then, Iceland has turned in a pretty impressive performance. It has repaid International Monetary Fund rescue loans ahead of schedule. Growth this year will be about 2.5 percent, better than most developed economies. Unemployment has fallen by half. In February, Fitch Ratings restored the country’s investment-grade status, approvingly citing its “unorthodox crisis policy response.”
So what exactly did Iceland do?

First, they create an aid package for homeowners:

To homeowners with negative equity, the country offered write-offs that would wipe out debt above 110 percent of the property value. The government also provided means-tested subsidies to reduce mortgage-interest expenses: Those with lower earnings, less home equity and children were granted the most generous support.
Then, they redenominated foreign currency debt into devalued krone, effectively giving creditors a big haircut:

In June 2010, the nation’s Supreme Court gave debtors another break: Bank loans that were indexed to foreign currencies were declared illegal. Because the Icelandic krona plunged 80 percent during the crisis, the cost of repaying foreign debt more than doubled. The ruling let consumers repay the banks as if the loans were in krona.These policies helped consumers erase debt equal to 13 percent of Iceland’s $14 billion economy. Now, consumers have money to spend on other things. It is no accident that the IMF, which granted Iceland loans without imposing its usual austerity strictures, says the recovery is driven by domestic demand.
What this meant is that unsustainable junk was liquidated. While I am no fan of nationalised banks and believe that eventually they should be sold off, there were no quick and easy bailouts that allowed the financial sector to continue with the same unsustainable bubble-based folly they practiced before the crisis (as has happened throughout the rest of the Western world).


And best of all, Iceland prosecuted the people who caused the crisis, providing a real disincentive (as opposed to more bailouts and bonuses):

Iceland’s special prosecutor has said it may indict as many as 90 people, while more than 200, including the former chief executives at the three biggest banks, face criminal charges.Larus Welding, the former CEO of Glitnir Bank hf, once Iceland’s second biggest, was indicted in December for granting illegal loans and is now waiting to stand trial. The former CEO of Landsbanki Islands hf, Sigurjon Arnason, has endured stints of solitary confinement as his criminal investigation continues.That compares with the U.S., where no top bank executives have faced criminal prosecution for their roles in the subprime mortgage meltdown. The Securities and Exchange Commission said last year it had sanctioned 39 senior officers for conduct related to the housing market meltdown.
Iceland’s approach is very much akin to what I have been advocating — write down the unsustainable debt, liquidate the junk corporations and banks that failed, disincentivise the behaviour that caused the crisis, and provide help to the ordinary individuals in the real economy (as opposed to phoney “stimulus” cash to campaign donors and big finance).

And Iceland has snapped out of its depression. The rest of the West, where banks continue to behave exactly as they did prior to the crisis, not so much.



To: tejek who wrote (128614)12/9/2012 9:29:12 AM
From: RetiredNow  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 149317
 
It suggests the rising consumer confidence reports are based more on reality than many thought. - tejek

Where do you get that? Consumer confidence is plummeting, not rising. Consumers aren't very happy with Congress' dithering.

----------------
Consumer sentiment nose-dives in December

By Steve Goldstein, MarketWatch

marketwatch.com

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Consumer sentiment took a giant step back in December, as the looming fiscal cliff made its first measurable dent on the public’s psyche.

The preliminary University of Michigan-Thomson Reuters consumer sentiment index fell to 74.5 from 82.7 in November.




That’s far below the 82.0 expected in a MarketWatch-compiled economist poll, eliminating four months of gains and also representing the biggest one-month drop since March 2011.

The report took some of the shine off a better-than-expected jobs report in November, as U.S. stocks pared their gains. Read more on jobs report.

Sentiment is still stronger by around 6.5% from the levels of December 2011, but that gain is down significantly from the nearly 30% year-on-year improvement seen in November.

The movement in the report came overwhelmingly on the expectations side, where the subindex tumbled to 64.6 from 77.6 in November.

Consumers’ assessment of current economic conditions were mostly stable, edging back to 89.9 from 90.7.

A series of tax hikes and spending cuts, called the fiscal cliff, is due to hit next year unless Congress reaches an agreement to avoid it. House Speaker John Boehner on Friday said there was no progress on talks.

The Congressional Budget Office has forecast the economy to grind to a halt were the full fiscal cliff implemented.

Consumer confidence, both the University of Michigan and other measures, had largely ignored the fiscal cliff until December, even as business sentiment remains muted.

The larger question is whether the diminished confidence translates into weaker retail performance.

Data has indicated that through October, retail sales have largely held up, rising about 3% from year-ago levels.

“With no clear resolution to the fiscal cliff yet in sight, it appears uncertainty over future taxes are now beginning to have a significant impact on consumer sentiment. Should a resolution be forthcoming, this decline could prove to be a temporary blip, although the longer it rolls on for the more likely sentiment (and possibly consumer spending) is to be further dampened,” said Andrew Grantham of CIBC World Markets in a note to clients.

Steve Goldstein is MarketWatch's Washington bureau chief. Follow him on Twitter @MKTWgoldstein.