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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (50280)	12/9/2012 11:39:09 AM
From: Spekulatius	Respond to of 78462

AAPL is awfully cheap, if you believe current estimates. I decided to stay our of this stock, since this company is so overanalyzed that I assume I am at a disadvantage. If we do get a real hard selloff, I might get into AAPL, but I first want to see many concentrated owners (hedgies, institutionals many of which have heavy positions) panicking. FWIW, my own perceptions is that AAPL's margins have peaked, mostly because their highest margin product, the iphone, has peaked as a percentage of AAPL's revenue. The other products, like ipad, have lower gross margins as their market segment get's more competitive. Through my scuttlebut research (mainly just watching what people use and talk about at work ), i think the Samsung phones are a strong competition, as several colleagues have replaced their aging iphone 3GS, 4 etc. with Samsung phones, not the iphone 5. I think AAPL continued growth depends on penetration of the Chinese market, and it seems like the biggest wireless carrier CHL will not adopt the iphone 5. Also, some of NOK success in the Chinese market with the Lumia phone, may have scared AAPL analysts an brought their estimates down for 2013. FWIW, AAPL widely publicized earning estimates exclude stock option expenses, which are very significant (AAPL share count is increasing quite significantly too).

To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (50280)	12/9/2012 2:25:35 PM
From: Mr.Gogo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78462

I bought at 100 then i bought at 70 and sold at 100. I remember we discussed their moat. I my reason for the sale was the news that Jobs is getting a transplant. The reason for the enormous success of apple is his innovation, design and management genius. This is almost impossible to replace. Have we seen any innovation after him? Oh I forgot, they started a war with Google... Maps poo poo. Their chief software architect is selling every single share that he gets, and probably hedging those he cannot sell at the moment. Three people i know bough android tablet because there is no application for youtube... JMO Good Investing