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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert Einstein who wrote (3645)	12/2/1997 8:52:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Re:Mr Kurlak with Mer Lynch. He is very respected Semi Analyst. By whom? Certainly not by me. He uses extreme hyperbole in his predictions several times a year causing the techs to soar or plummet. My own opinion is he does this to grandstand. ReBandwidth is the problem, NOT power in the PC. This is what Short-Sighted analyst logic looks like up close. These people have no imagination IMO. In only 12-16 months there will be new applications used by the masses that simply are not widely used today. Voice recognition, real-time videoconferencing, and DVD movies on PC's are only a sliver of what is to come. They do require faster processors, more DRAM etc. etc. They are here at the present, but run like molasses on even the fastest machines. So unless demand is not there for these new apps and every PC owner only wants to use their computer only for Word or Excel, then Tommy is correct in what he is saying. Otherwise, he either doesn't have a clue or wants to create a buying opportunity for himself. My guess is the latter, otherwise the idiots are running the show. We think this is the beginning of the real end-cycle for the semi industry. Yes everyone sell your semiconductor stocks beca... I can't even type this out its so ridiculous. It's unlikely the semi stocks have seen their lows. On this one he is probably correct. With people like "bi-polar" Kurlak out there spewing this garbage, I don't know if we can ever be certain that we've hit bottom. BK

To: Robert Einstein who wrote (3645)	12/2/1997 8:56:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

R E, First, tom Kurlak works for Merrill Lynch, gets paid by Merrill Lynch, a company which makes more money if the market is more volatile. Their vested interest is to see more buying and selling happen. If that hurts their customers' net worth, too bad. ... as long as the customer doesn't figure out how (s)he's being manipulated. If you believe the scenario that the world will enter a significant recession, or a depression; that deflation will become global; and that people in developed and developing countries will stop buying products which use chips, then you should believe every one of Tom (Chicken Little) Kurlak's proclamations that the sky is falling down; sell every security that you hold; buy a lump of gold (to protect against deflation), hide it under your mattress and resurface once Tom Kurlak proclaims the depression is over (about 1-2 months from now, I'd guess). The only glaring slip up in his scenario that I spotted was, ... yr-over-yr on a 20% increase in unit growth. More unit growth usually means more fab capacity and almost always more tools from the Equipment Makers, more test, assembly and packaging equipment, etc. Other than that little slip, Tom did a nice bearish number. ... and he will probably scare the prices down. But he doesn't want you to buy on the dips before he and his customers do. So he has encouraged you to sell into any rallies just in case someone else does. I believe we'd all be better served by ignoring this garbage; knowing and understanding what is a fair price for the stocks; and if we don't yet have full positions established to buy when our own efforts indicate the company is a buy. Kurlak doesn't get paid by you. Don't expect him to look after your interests. IMHO. Ian.