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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (50483)	1/7/2013 3:31:01 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 78602

FCX. Fwiw, I'll add a little to my few shares now. Low p/e, relatively high roe (~Greenblatt model). Good profit margins. "They say" China is coming back ==> construction/building ==> copper demand. Gold stocks have been a poor performing sector, so maybe 2013 will be a better year for FCX, others. finance.yahoo.com

To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (50483)	1/10/2014 12:30:58 AM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 78602

2013 results: Caveats: rates are from Quicken/IRR which I still believe is buggy/not reliable. One or two positions are wide spread micro caps that trade on appointment, so their prices are sometimes misprinted and therefore misaccounted. Results also include 401(k) accounts where I cannot invest into my selection of stocks and ESPP accounts where return accounting by Quicken is suspect. So reader beware. Quicken shows 24.8% return in 2013. Excluding ESPP/401(k)s, Quicken shows 28.5% return. SP500 had 32.4% return, so I underperformed again. If this continues, I should switch to index investing. :) I did hold about 16-17% in cash and similar amount in income securities throughout the year. This can explain the underperformance, though it's not a justification. I don't like how Quicken reports security IRRs, so I won't get into individual stock returns. Most stock purchases worked this year - it was a year of rising markets. Just holding most of positions would have yielded better returns than what I got in selling them. Quicken reports 11.4% earliest to date annualized IRR. This covers about 18 years. About 22.9% annualized IRR for last 5 years - but this covers 2009. Next year 5 year returns are not gonna be so easily attractive. :) 10 year annualized IRR is way less attractive 8.5%. I am really not sure if I can trust these numbers. For example, 36% loss in 2004 does not seem correct, which would impact the 10 year IRR a lot. Overall, I am pretty satisfied with last 18 years though. :)