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Biotech / Medical : Agouron Pharmaceuticals (AGPH) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: margie who wrote (3098)	12/3/1997 12:49:00 PM
From: David S.	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 6136

"The end of the collaboration with Roche will decrease contract revenues for 99 and 2000. In the near term Agouron is exploring licensing opportunities for later stage products for cancer and HIV infection to augment its pipeline." Margie, there are NO later stage products! Even Pavlov's dogs could do more than one trick. Wake up.

To: margie who wrote (3098)	12/3/1997 1:08:00 PM
From: tommysdad	Respond to of 6136

. <<In some respects this is not dissimilar to when Agouron reaquired rights to Viracept from Eli Lilly, which chose to discontinue its involvement in this program in 1993. Agouron certainly benefited from the end of that collaboration.>> That's the IR response. But is it valid? 1) When LLY gave AGPH Viracept, development of Viracept continued at AGPH, as did the PI program. And AGPH had to partner the project (with Japan Tobacco). Now, look at Thymitaq. It is D-E-A-D. Apparently, so is the entire thymidylate synthase program (no backups to Thymitaq have been announced). This program is the oldest program at AGPH, and now it's gone, and all the cash poured into that drain is GONE. Not at all similar to Viracept and the PI program. 2) AGPH will now fund the cancer programs on its own dime (according to its press release). What effect do you think that will have on its other programs (Hep C, rhinovirus, etc). Do you really think AGPH can afford to fund all of these projects internally? What about the clinicals? Roche's support for that is now history. 3) Although the big drop is probably an overreaction, it also means that AGPH is probably dead money for a while. $70 by any time in 1998 is a pipe dream. AGPH at $27/share looks very attractive, but it is a far bigger risk today than when Thymitaq had chance of being a drug. AGPH is a one drug company for at least the next 3-4 years -- if everything goes smoothly for AG3340, you're still looking at product launch sometime in 2001. That gives them time to figure out how to make it commercially, because right now that is a big problem {it is a very difficult molecule to make}. But now they aren't getting any help from Roche's process group (which may not be a big deal anyway). 4) AGPH is not going out of business. But they are considerably weaker today than they were last week. They need another strong partnership and/or an in-license of an advanced product. Both of those things mean dilution. Rough times ahead for AGPH. Probably worth riding out though.

To: margie who wrote (3098)	12/3/1997 6:30:00 PM
From: Oliver & Co	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6136

Well, look at today's options. Feb 1998 $35 Puts----3575 contracts Feb 1998 $47.5 Puts--1355 contracts Is it inside, or is it inside? JLL

To: margie who wrote (3098)	12/3/1997 11:44:00 PM
From: WMG	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 6136

Good synopsis Margie. Having spent three years as Business Development Director with a private BioPharm company and having spent many days in talks and negotiations with Agouron, I can personally tell you that Agouron is one of the best managed BioPharms in the industry. Pulling the plug on a marginal compound like Thymataq is smart business sense. Their MMP inhibitor has a lot more promise, even if it is somewhat difficult to synthesize. But, I have no doubt that a more efficient route of synthesis will be developed. Don't forget that British Biotech has two MMP inhibitors in variuos phases of clinical trials and has a market cap of over $500MM, with no drug on the market. To the critics who profess that AGPH is now "just a one drug company", every BioTech company was a "one drug company" in their infancy. Agouron has an impressive pipeline, not to broad and diffusive to be unfocused, and not to narrow so as to bet the companies future on the prospects of one particular technology. Amgen had severe downdrafts of 30-50% while it was on its way from $1 to $100 (adjusted for splits). AGPH stock is CHEAP at today's price. Today's price is an opportunity... do you hear it knocking? WMG