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To: BillyG who wrote (26049)12/3/1997 5:56:00 PM
From: John Rieman  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 50808
 
Digital Camera Sales Could Top $1.6 Billion in North America in 2001: Strong Brands with Ties to Microsoft Have Best Chance for Success..........................................

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LAS VEGAS-With InfoTrends Research Group Inc. projecting digital camera revenues in North America to jump from $230,000 last year to $1.6 billion in 2001, photography equipment vendors have good reason to tie their fortunes to the PC.

Unit shipments of still cameras and cameras tethered to the PC are expected to increase at a compound annual growth rate of 103 percent, from 270,000 units in 1996 to 19.1 million in 2001 in North America, InfoTrends reports.

Peripheral Makers With an Edge

Microsoft is working to incorporate drivers into Windows 98 for the following digital imaging products:

HP: SCSI scanners (models IIC, IIp, IICX, 3p, 3c, 4p, 4c, 5p and 6100c)Logitech: PageScan USB scannerKodak: cameras (models DC25 and DC120)Umax: Astra SCSI scanners (models 600S, 1200S and 610S)

Source: Microsoft Corp.

The jump comes largely because multimedia PC makers are starting to bundle tethered cameras with systems and passing very little of that cost on to consumers, Kristy Holch, principal of InfoTrends, told Multimedia Week.

Companies with strong brand names and close ties to Microsoft Corp. [MSFT] over the next few years will have the best chance of reaping revenue in this emerging market. But that doesn't mean the market is closed off to newcomers.

"The market is still very young, and I think we're going to see the landscape change a lot in terms of who's a player today and in the future," Holch said.

She said Casio Inc., a name not typically associated with the PC or camera business, has experienced strong sales this year and surprised a lot of market watchers. Her picks for the leading digital camera makers this year are Eastman Kodak Co. [EK], Casio, Epson America Inc. and Olympus America Inc.

Because most, if not all, of Kodak-branded hardware is manufactured by other companies, the vendor's play for the market is an opportunity for camera companies in OEM deals.

Help From Windows 98

Microsoft executives are trying to work with hardware vendors to add simplicity to digital imaging in Windows 98.

The company's upcoming OS includes a still-image architecture that lets vendors write to the Windows Driver Model to make sure their hardware is compatible with the PC. The upgrade is suppose to give camera makers the ability to make their devces truly plug and play and let them develop applications that take several steps out of the process of bringing images into the PC, said Vicki Milton, Microsoft technical evangelist for the Windows hardware program.

But most vendors will have to package drivers with their cameras and require users to save them to their PCs hard disk.

Because of space limitations, Microsoft is only including drivers in the OS that will support a few cameras and scanners. Milton said Microsoft is working with beta 3 of Windows 98 to support scanners from Logitech International [LOFIY], Hewlett-Packard Co. [HWP] and Umax Technologies Inc., as well as two Kodak cameras.

Keep it Simple

As with any technology targeted at consumers, manufacturers are having to find a balance making digital imaging products easy to use without automating them so much that users can't be creative. Software makers, in particular, are aware of this challenge.

Adobe Systems Inc. [ADBE] executives expect PhotoDeluxe to ship close to 10 million units by year's end, but success in the consumer software category didn't come overnight.

The company's initial stab at the market in the early _90's with a watered-down version of the pro title Adobe Photoshop failed. The product was too complex for the user. Going back to the drawing board, Adobe watched other companies have success selling creativity products and followed their lead.

"Quite frankly, we borrowed from Quicken and Broderbund," said Bruce Chizen, senior vice president and general manager of Adobe's graphics division. "We're using the same engine, the same technology and a whole new approach. We're giving users control, but giving them structure. The real challenge going forward is how much automation do we apply?"

Adobe has made the majority of its earnings, which included $685 million in revenue and $140 million in net income for the first nine months of 1996, from sales to professional developers. But it is charging hard toward the consumer market.

"We've only touched a small piece of the consumer segment," he said. "We believe it represents the largest opportunity." (Adobe, 408/536-6000; InfoTrends, 816/931-4900; Microsoft, 206/882-8080; see MMW, Oct. 13, for related story.)