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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: NikhilJog who wrote (50694)	1/29/2013 6:48:47 PM
From: Dennis 3	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78609

N - One question... 28m shares float 38% Institutional ownership. My question isn't hard to short a stock with such low institution ownership and relatively low float?

To: NikhilJog who wrote (50694)	1/29/2013 10:51:03 PM
From: Spekulatius	2 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78609

Interesting suggestion. While I agree that N is hopelessly overvalued, that does not make it necessarily a good short. If the sales slowdown that you anticipate does occur, the stock probably will go down, but you don't provide any evidence that this indeed is going to happen imo. You are also fuzzy on the details, are you recommending to short this only when it hit's 75$. What happens, if it never get's to that price - no trade? Put's are expensive, which one to buy - the 50$ one for July 2013 for 1.75$. I would not short this because the limited float makes a meltup in case they beat earnings more likely. Know some folks who threw puts at CRM and shorted the stock when it was at 75$ and looked ridiculously overvalued too. I think I'd rather bet on the wheels are coming off with CRM which has a 25B$ market cap and no profits after stock based compensation, plus they spent >50%of revenues on marketing and sales, which tells you a lot about the prevailing culture of this firm. But timing is everything and I have no clue when the wheels are coming off from these seemingly unstoppable growth stock mania trains.