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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: hasbeen101 who wrote (7790)	12/4/1997 8:13:00 AM
From: Dan Lisman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9285

Okay, I will be the one to disagree with the danger of options, specifically puts. If you are going to short an expensive (and wildly fluctuating) stock like CTXS, put options are the only safe way to play. You can't lose more than you bet, but a 50% profit is pretty normal(when you win). Option prices are set by supply & demand (there is NO set formula), shop around for different strike prices and expiration times. What usually works for me is a price about $5 in the money and an expiration about 60 days out. The secret of options is to take some profit when you can. Don't hold til expiration, unless they have become worthless. Yes, you see the words "play", "bet", and "win" in my post, but ANY short is a bet. The real purpose of the stock MARKET was for the common people to "share the wealth" of big business. Shorts & Puts were created BY gamblers FOR gamblers. Live Long & Prosper Dan

To: hasbeen101 who wrote (7790)	12/4/1997 11:13:00 AM
From: Pancho Villa	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 9285

DL: more on frequent trading. Do not think I am not guilty of the sins I preach against. It is like a virus. Since I started posting at SI my turnover rate has gone up significantly. Yes I pay 14.95 but you cannot forget the spread. Also, when you are trying to chase a random process you will likely make the wrong moves. Take this example: you are standing in the center of a square room, a piece of candy falls randomly from above and is equaly likely to fall in any spot within the square. If the candy falls on the square basket you are wearing as a hat you get to keep it. Suppose you follow the strategy of moving to the last spot the candy landed. Do you think this improves your chance of catching the next candy? Now, every time you move you burn some calories. Can you guess what the calories are in this analogy? Pancho (the calories you burn are the commissions and the spread)