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To: derek cao who wrote (41430)12/4/1997 10:41:00 AM
From: Road Walker  Respond to of 186894
 
Derek,

Long bond yield currently at 6.003%, may dip below 6% today, will certainly go below 6% IF we get a friendly employment report tomorrow. I would be very surprised if we didn't get an equities rally if it can stay below 6%.

John



To: derek cao who wrote (41430)12/4/1997 2:24:00 PM
From: Charles Skeen  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 186894
 
==OFF-TOPIC== Re: <<IMHO, the odds are in my favor.>>

The odds of what? If you are referring to your statement that it was unlikely that (US Treasury long-term) bond rates would drop below 6% if short term rates were not moved lower (by the Fed?), you may have already lost, as long term rates dipped briefly below 6% today -- though now at 6.009% according to CNBC. Will likely close below 6% in the coming days!

If you are referring to my comment to 'Buy bonds!' -- Well, I did not say that bonds would beat stocks in the short, intermediate or longer term. But, on a risk-adjsted basis (low risk in bonds currently, IMO), it is simply good advice to anyone with a large portfolio who might be seeking to balance and lower volatility. As it happens, I am somewhat bullish on stocks for the period into mid-January, and I am loaded up with tech stocks at present, plus some bond funds.

Charlie.