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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (51068)	3/7/2013 6:08:21 PM
From: E_K_S	1 Recommendation Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78958

Northwest Natural Gas Company (NWN) ONEOK Partners, L.P. (OKS) Paul of those stocks you listed these two caught my eye. NWN is still priced a bit high at 18 Forward PE. At 16 PE or 17 PE I may start a position. I need to add this one to my current watch list. From the list below ATO & GAS still have the lowest PE and GAS beats out on it's current yield. I presently own both ATO & GAS. I noticed that Grommit added shares (child portions) of ATO, GAS, NI & CNP. I currently own ATO, GAS & CNP. However, many of these utilities are at 52wk highs. From that list of MLP's, what made you start a position in OKS? I still have a hard to trying to value these so if one looks at the future growth of the distribution, maybe this one is undervalued. I have been playing around w/ different metrics for these MLP's. Clownbuck looks at the current distribution "yield", it's coverage and the potential to increase the future distribution w/o compromising the coverage (ie keep coverage above 1.1). What about a simple measure of calculating $EBITDA/share and then calculating the $Price/$EBITDA/share, similar to PE. Anything at 10 or less would be a value Buy. 20 or less might be ones to consider especially if new revenue streams are anticipated w/ prior ongoing capital investments. So, if you compare these two MLP's (both mentioned in that Barron's article) OKS looks like the best value based on Price/EBITDA. OKS has 219.82M shares EBITDA= $1.6B EBITDA/share = $5.30/share Price/ EBITDA/share = $52.47/ $5.30/share = 9.9 OILT has 38.9M shares EBITDA= $ 76.64M EBITDA/share = $1.97/share Price/ EBITDA/share = $48.37/ $1.97/share = 24.6 APL has 56.29M shares EBITDA= $206.36M/share = $3.67/share Price/EBITA/share = $32.50/$3.67/share = 8.9 If that makes sense then OKS looks quite attractive with it's Price/EBITDA at 9.9. I recently doubled my APL position as it's Price/EBITA/share is quite low at 8.9. OILT has an interesting business model but to me is quite expensive at the current price. FWIW, OILT is up over 20% in the last 30 days. Maybe it becomes one of those "bolt" on acquisitions for somebody like WMB and/or WPZ. Is this the best way to value MLP's? I guess it also depends how aggressive management is on growing revenues, managing distribution coverage and building new revenue streams (ie "bolt" on acquisitions that are accretive). EKS

To: Paul Senior who wrote (51068)	3/7/2013 6:52:19 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Respond to of 78958

IACAF - I owned it in 2009, then sold in 2010/2011. It seems cheap based on 2012 results, but I am not sure about the buyout of Valiant. Seems like a large purchase that could break IACAF if the results are subpar. It does not seem that Valiant was doing well. I somewhat agree with JEC who oppose the transaction. It does seem like a transaction geared to derail JEC's board contest. I think I won't step into this fight. Good luck.

To: Paul Senior who wrote (51068)	4/22/2013 6:03:29 PM
From: Paul Senior	Respond to of 78958

GTE: This Colombian o&g producer said last week that it's quarterly production was 21,860 boepd - 97% oil and ngls. (I would've liked to have seen what the ngls proportion was.) Yahoo shows GTE enterprise value of $1.28B. That makes flowing barrels $58.6k/boepd. Cheap. (If it can be sustained and if netbacks are okay -- I've no info about the netback numbers though. Also, I have read that Colombian wells are not long-lived. Otoh, GTE is in other countries besides Colombia, has an active exploration program, and has no ltd.) I am increasing my GTE position now. finance.yahoo.com