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To: Tim J. Flick who wrote (6865)12/4/1997 10:18:00 PM
From: Zebra 365  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 31646
 
New warrants were not issued.

In your post you wrote: <<<Also, these warrants that were given out (95,000) I would bet my bottom dollar will be converted and sold as soon as possible.>>>

You probably already checked back but I wanted to make it clear that the 95,500 warrants I mentioned were a penalty only if the S-3 was filed late. As it has only been 2 weeks since the PP, I cannot imagine that the S-3 is late.

<<<The time of registration is usually part of the deal and, as noted below, there will be 10% (95,500) additional warrants issued if the company fails to register on time. The S-3 of 10-17-97 was 17 days late and cost a late penalty of 44,000 shares, they are not going to be late with this one.>>>

I agree with your statement about supply, demand and frontrunning. I'm sure the quick registration was a condition of the deal.

When I look at the stock price and the fundamentals building I conclude that there may be another reason that the PP participants wanted quick registration. Look at the curve of other Y2K companies over the past year. In many there was a quick overshoot in price from "market discovery" and then an equally quick collapse, albeit in the non-ZITL companies, i.e. the ones with real contracts, the price fell to a higher plateau than pre-spike. My point is that if I had just bought 100,000 shares of TPRO in the PP, and the stock started to shoot up on momentum in a week or two, I would be tearing my hair out wanting to sell at least some at the top of the overshoot. Without CBOE options or shorting available, the only way to lock in profit would be to sell, and the shares have to be registered for that. I might like the company, but if this stock shot up to 50-70 on total buying panic like ZITL did a year ago, I'm cashed out. I'm not predicting it, but have seen it happen to other stocks in similar circumstances, and so has anyone who can plunk down a million dollars on a penny stock.

I just think it's unlikely that anyone would go throught the DD of a private placement, just to buy the stock at $5.50 in order to turn around and sell or short at $6.25-75. So whether the stock is registered or not, I doubt it will hit the market as selling pressure before we see double digits. But you are right, who bought it is an important piece of the puzzle.

Zebra



To: Tim J. Flick who wrote (6865)12/4/1997 10:27:00 PM
From: patrick gillis  Respond to of 31646
 
Tim,
If this PP is being registered for quick sale what is the scenario you forsee? Also if the warrants are converted does this mean that the price is driven down into the low five area. My knowledge is limited.
Thanks
Patrick



To: Tim J. Flick who wrote (6865)12/4/1997 10:32:00 PM
From: eleebee  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 31646
 
Jim,
Please excuse my ignorance since I am a long term investor and
I don't worry about short term fluctuations.
I assume that you are making suppositions based on your experience
Do we really know that the recipients of the PP are in for a short
term small profit, or will they play for big bucks? It seems to me
that we have an excellant base well above 5.50 and their risk is
minimal. Do institutions that participate in PP engage in short
term trading as a rule?
Are we making an assumption that the stock was registered on
time and the 95000 shares is forfit? If so I personally can't see
a quick sale for $75-95000 as a great benefit to the PP particulaly
since this is to be divided among 6 institutions.
Also do you think these institutions will act in consort or will
they have different agendas?
I am not being facitious I truly am ignorant how these people
work.
Mark



To: Tim J. Flick who wrote (6865)12/5/1997 11:49:00 AM
From: Rainforest  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 31646
 
Don't private placees make their money by shorting the stock with market makers at the higher price and then replacing it when it inevitably goes down? Why would it be any different with the TPRO placement?