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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: wallstreetbull who wrote (26437)	12/4/1997 10:37:00 PM
From: StockMan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1572348

Sam, Re -- I wish more people would talk about the prospects for AMD for the future. You mean what you want to hear of AMD's prospects for the future. Time and Time I have been saying AMD's prospects for the future are a Zero, unless they get out of competing with Intel. AMD's stock price is heading to 9-10 area. Now this is not what you want to hear. Stockman

To: wallstreetbull who wrote (26437)	12/4/1997 11:06:00 PM
From: Merlo	Respond to of 1572348

Hello, This may be somewhat off the subject but I like to investigate a company before I buy it's stock. One of the ways I judge a company is by the way it treats it's employee's. Interesting enough I found a new web site created by a former intel employee and to say the least was not happy with what I read. The site is called "Former And Current employees of Intel home page" Just my opinion, Merlo

To: wallstreetbull who wrote (26437)	12/4/1997 11:12:00 PM
From: miraje	Respond to of 1572348

Sam, I'm an INTC holder and lurk this thread but rarely post. I agree that all the name calling and "my chip is better than yours, nyah, nyah" is not accomplishing much. As for the direction of AMD stock, weigh the positives and negatives. On the plus side, the K6 is a well designed chip. Tier 1 OEM's are on board and they seem to be selling all they can manufacture. On the flip side, questions remain. Are they really fixing the yield problem? Are the ASP's high enough to make any profits? Will they transition to .25um without major delays and engineering problems? How much longer will Sanders be running the show? The potential is there for AMD, but I'll wait to see how some of these issues wash out before taking a position. Regards, JB

To: wallstreetbull who wrote (26437)	12/4/1997 11:58:00 PM
From: Brian Hutcheson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1572348

Sam , re. where AMD is heading over next 12 months These are the facts , the K6 is widely accepted as a very cost effective alternate to Intel . AMD should sell all they can make . I believe that in the .25 version the K6 is superior to Intel's offerings . The K6-3d version is even more superior . The important question is how many can they make . On .35 the yield is now over 50% 233mhz version On .25 , I have reason to believe that yield is also improving rapidly. AMD's problem was never production in the past , it was having the right product at the right time . If you take the weekly wafer capacity of Fab25 and SDC it should equate to at least 4000 wafers per week at maximum . On .25 at 50 % yield that equates to about 180 dies x 4000 x 13 per quarter or slightly over 9M k6s per quarter. At a blended ASP of just $150 it gives total K6 revenue of 1.35 B and even with an ASP of $100 it would give $900 M They will still be able to make v. good profits since analysts this year were stating that the cost of production on .25 should be under $35 . Of course to those figure you could add revenues of $400M+ for the rest of AMD's business , giving revenue of $1.3B - $1.75B per quarter That explains why Salomon bros and others were saying that earnings should be explosive. What stock price would that produce ? From the figures earnings in dollars per quarter are possible . Judging by the overvaluation on stocks like Dell anywhere from $100 - $200+ Of course it also depends on whether the market remains favourable throughout '98 and the P/E that the market would give to AMD . I believe that patience with this stock will be well rewarded since it is the only semiconductor stock ( that I am aware of )that has a proprietary product which can be sold at premium prices and also has the production facilities to produce in large volumes regards , Brian

To: wallstreetbull who wrote (26437)	12/5/1997 12:18:00 AM
From: Petz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1572348

Sam Finta, re:AMD for next 12 months Here's the positives and negatives: 1. Imminent intro (December) of first notebook chips using 0.25 um process. You could argue that Intel was 3 months earlier than AMD, but AMD chips will be 266 and possibly 300 MHz. Potential negative: low production volume or no 300MHz chip before Intel has a 266MHz notebook chip. 2. Compaq K6-233 computers selling like hotcakes post-Christmas. Since this news has leaked, they may introduce earlier also. 3. K6-3D chip in Q1, 1998. Extremely positive if computers using 300MHz K6-3D are available before Intel machines using Pentium II-333 4. Increasing production volumes during late '97 and 1998. Shipped 1M K6's in Q3, expect 1.5 to 1.7M Q4 (1.5M=negative, 1.6M=slightly positive, >1.7M=very positive). I'll be happy with 20-30% increase in K6's each quarter. Potential overall negatives: Delay in Microsoft support for K6-3D, poor ramp of 0.25 um process (less likely than problems which occured with original K6 because die size is 1/3 to 1/2 as big=less defect problems), instruction incompatibility problems (i.e., "errata"), problems with chipset manufacturers getting 100MHz bus to work during Q1 (this would make K6-3D slower than Pentium II-300 on straight business applications). To summarize, the two biggest positives for AMD in 1998 are 1. Almost certainly, the FASTEST NOTEBOOK CHIP AVAILABLE for at least 4 months 2. Being from one speed grade behind to one speed grade ahead of Intel in Desktop CPU's. Intel has always priced their TWO fastest chips at very high prices relative to their other chips. By contrast, currently AMD is 2.5 speed grades behind Intel since K6-233 is slightly slower than P2-233 and definitely slower than 266, 300. Timing -- a further test below 20 is possible with tax loss selling and the very weak SOX index, but I intend to pick up some AMD before the end of the year. Petz