Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Buy and Sell Signals, and Other Market Perspectives -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Harmens who wrote (48438)	4/10/2013 11:01:09 AM
From: Fintas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 220963

A few years ago 2005 ish, one I worked with was deep in R/E development/building. I suggested he get defensive for my work suggested R/E was about to take a serious hit. He disagreed for many tend to defend what they love. I kept hear how R/E was safe. Unfortunately he was wrong and was forced into BK. The point is they NEVER tell you when they are leaving. One has to look at the numbers as you just did to pick it up and accept hey where are you all going. I've been presenting for a bit that housing/R/E, builders, forrest have been to the far right on the bell curve for a bit. Thus demonstrating the buying that has been going on for a while. However history and experience supports when any sector stays to far right for a long time it isn't when it rolls but when it does and how low it will go. Whereas those sectors went to extreme lows, I don't expect a repeat. However given the reality of housing and things to come yet not known. I'm not looking for hugh increases in home prices nor do I expect builders to go boom. My sense is a return to the profits of the 60's/70's. So that would suggest to me the PHM, KBH etc, will see a decent pullback. When that happens then we should see consolidation which is why I'm surprised to see an IPO today. Oh well there's always those who buy the story. Be well And thanks for the informative link. Oh on an aside. Think about this. IF R/E is held to a 1-3% rise annually and one is down 300-500k how long would it take to recover such. NOW consider if one's equities or other assets are UP300- 500k what does that cause one to consider doing? HMMM capital gain and capital loss. So I will not be surprised to see seminars popping up educating many to walk away, take the loss of the home. Offest it with gains and then re purchase another home: older or newer. HMM what does that due to tax revenue. Not going to make govt happy. As a result of capitalism and democracy 101, that will continue to keep downside pressure on housing. In spite what govt or those in the industry want one to know. It's going to take YEARS for many who are underwater to get their investment back. The lower re fi's are nice but they were done to stop the selling. Eventually rates will rise and that too will slow things down. Yet the govt will have accomplished what they wanted. PUT a bottom in. Allowed builders to buy up lots of foreclosed land etc but the profit margins will be lower. So I'll let others buy the builders etc. I'll also be willing to exploit but not be exploited. Fintas