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Strategies & Market Trends : Fundamental Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: bruwin who wrote (2893)4/12/2013 8:45:29 AM
From: The Ox2 Recommendations  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 4720
 
My thoughts are about the current strength in the markets. Those sectors which have been on fire, are near or at the distribution phase and those that are weakest should be watched for new signs of basing or reversals.

We've seen this the last 3 years, as the "sell in May and go away" crowd ramps up certain sectors. After these excessive runs, they all fall steadily for the next 4 to 7 months as "profit taking" takes over.

Similarly, the sectors "no one wants to buy" (at this time in April), find support during this same period.

It's not always a clear rotation. When the market starts to sell off, there tends to be "few places to hide" initially. Then there are "stealth" rallies in areas of the market and those are the places we need to keep an eye on, patiently waiting for the trends to move from down or sideways to up.

EDIT - This is more of an "intermediate" term strategy. However, during this search, one often will find quality companies that fit in line with the basic theme of this thread, Fundamental Value!



To: bruwin who wrote (2893)4/12/2013 10:04:23 PM
From: Spekulatius1 Recommendation  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 4720
 
Regarding 10 month SPY DMA

>>Such a strategy would have avoided the 2001-2002 bear market and the gut-wrenching decline in 2008<<

This would have given you two false sell signals, one in 2010 and another in 2011 that would have cost you quite a bit. It works until it doesn't.