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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stewart Whitman who wrote (2654)	12/5/1997 8:52:00 AM
From: Michael Burry	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78576

<<In my opinion, there is inevitably going to be a shift to thin clients in the corporate arena. >> Read the Forbes article on Quantum dated Dec 1. This is exactly why Quantum will be successful. DLT drives are part of the backbone of a world in which thin clients rule. As has been apparent from the response to me in both e-mail and on SI, people are verging on the belief that hard drives will fall off the face of the earth in a new paradigm shift. I don't want this to become another Quantum thread - one already exists. I haven't had one positive response yet, and of all my picks, people seem to have it out especially for Quantum in terms of doom and gloom. Interesting. If anything, I should be in this stock just because so many people disagree with me. Mike

To: Stewart Whitman who wrote (2654)	12/5/1997 8:55:00 AM
From: jeffbas	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78576

I am quite impressed with with your well-reasoned comments. I would appreciate your view of the semiconductor industry, whose stocks have also been slaughtered but seems to have better long term growth prospects. (Increasing use in all products, and eventually every person in China will own some product with a semiconductor.)

To: Stewart Whitman who wrote (2654)	12/5/1997 10:07:00 AM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78576

Stewart H. Whitman: I'm betting on DD stocks to come back. Nobody knows when or (yes, you may be right) if. When (if) they do, by the time the dust settles (on the blood that's in the street now -g-)and people figure out there's still a business there... prices will be higher. No new paradigm shift ... yet -g-. Adding to my position in WDC at these levels. Seem like I am the lone buyer on this thread -g-.

To: Stewart Whitman who wrote (2654)	12/6/1997 7:23:00 PM
From: Michael Burry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78576

Quantum analyst opinion This is from Lehman from a downgrade on 12/3 "While drive stock prices have collapsed to what might be viewed as compelling levels of valuation, we remain unconvinced that we have yet reached an inflection point in the fundamentals which will serve as the catalyst for a recovery in the group. Due to lack of visability into improving market conditions, and a corresponding lack of substantial improvement in the supply/demand fundamentals and related pricing aggressiveness, we believe the group will continue to underperform near-tearm" "Correspondingly, we readily admit that it is too early to re-enter the group at this time. Even Quantum's shares - which we believe are severely under-valued at current levels ( with the tape business alone valued at approx. $40) - will likely remain under pressure until both sentiment and earnings visability for the group improves." "However, as soon as we see evidence that the environment has stabilized, we would aggressively recommend purchase of the shares in the HDD sector with the expectation of strong gains in 1998." "Quantum remains our favorite stock in this space." ************* IMO, the downgrade reflects analysts' preoccupation with short term appreciation, and the rest of the wording confirms my own analysis of the stock and the cyclicality here. Looks like a long-term buy to me. That DLT business is like an undiscovered asset which, unlike land, has a defined payoff timetable (no offense to land investors). Mike