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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pancho Villa who wrote (7865)	12/5/1997 8:49:00 AM
From: purecntry5	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9285

A day for the shorts indeed! 08:37 ET Economic Numbers: November non-farm payrolls +404,000 (consensus +200,000) and unemployment rate came in at 4.6% (consensus 4.8%). 08:33 ET Stock Indications: Jobs numbers strong, and the markets don't like it. As soon as the numbers hit, S&P futures reversed from +4.10 to the -6.30 level currently traded. That level suggests at least a 80 pt decline on the Dow at the open. Cowboy Brett

To: Pancho Villa who wrote (7865)	12/5/1997 7:58:00 PM
From: hasbeen101	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9285

Well we have a really schizophrenic economic environment don't we? 4 Months ago inflation was the big bogey because of the magnificently strong US economy. In September and expecially October, Asia started melting down and everyone started talking about deflation. Now with more evidence of US strength, the talk will turn to inflation again. I draw two lessons from this: 1. The mythology that Asia would outperform forever and the US was in decline is now seen to be just thaht: a myth. There are some wonderful things in the US economic model. US dominance of global IT (especially software) is one of the most important investment trends this century. IMHO even if the Dow tanks sometime soon, US software stocks will outperform MSCI world for at least another decade. The people who can't see this are in for more pain. Note that this doesn't mean that the Y2K stocks or other scams are soundly based. There are always exceptions. 2. The fears about inflation or deflation are a bit overdone. It makes poor copy for newspapers, but things are really quite good. Greenspan is a great manager. The IMF will cure many ills in Asia, and the world is not going to end just because a few banks go out backwards. Central bankers know more these days about how to manage these crises. The IMF and Greenspan and a few minor players like my own country (Australia) are all counselling wise economic reforms in Asia. I'm hopeless at predicting short-run market moves, but selective buying of quality US tech stocks looks like a good long-term investment IMHO.