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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: paulelgin who wrote (51401)	4/24/2013 6:01:03 AM
From: Ditchdigger	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78658

"PegIntron is BY FAR the most important of the royalty-generating drugs" and there in lies a problem. The holy grail of Hep C treatment is to eliminate peg- interferon from the current cocktail(s) being used--and it appears that isn't to far off in the future (beginning with geno 1's). New treatment time has already been cut in half for many to 24 weeks, compared to 48 minimum in the past. While the number of hep c cases is increasing,the market for pegintron and it's competitor pegasys (both requiring injection) has a target on it's back. blogs.marketwatch.com

To: paulelgin who wrote (51401)	4/24/2013 11:55:47 AM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78658

ENZN. Okay, I see the value proposition a little better now -- why the Klarman, et. al. might own it. Some of the final numbers might need adjusting: PegIntron patent expires Jan. 2016 apparently. So three years until then might actually be 2 and 3/4, since we're already past 1Q 2013. That might still be very good, maybe even somewhat better than you suggest depending on timing of revenue receipts, and given that as, "... of March 31, 2013, the Company had cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities totaling $199.3 million and approximately $116 million in outstanding 4% convertible notes, which mature on June 1, 2013." I'll go along with you and your analysis and make a small bet that we'll at least get all our investment dollars back in about three years and will then have residual distributions enough to make the time-value of money wait worthwhile. Assuming management is working for the benefit of shareholders and continues the path they are proposing. And that I can hold on for the payoff(s). I'll make my buy in a Roth because I don't know if the dividend(s) is(are) taxable as "dividend income" or as a "return of capital". With Roth, no tax consequences either way for me.