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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lazarus_Long who wrote (10965)	12/5/1997 6:49:00 PM
From: Defrocked	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

JM, yield curve was last significantly negative in late '80 leading to '81 recession. At that time 3Mo./10Yr. was -3.27% in Dec.'81. Now around 60 bps. and below average over the '53 to date period I use sometimes. avg= 1.25 min= -3.27 max 4.26 FWIW. ( I've reviewed these numbers lately and had them handy.<g>)

To: Lazarus_Long who wrote (10965)	12/5/1997 6:52:00 PM
From: Bonnie Bear	Respond to of 94695

the last time we had employment numbers like this was 73, too. and there wasn't an asian economy at all, let alone a limping one, to keep interest rates from skyrocketing and the market from tanking. The stock market in 73 was not fun :-(

To: Lazarus_Long who wrote (10965)	12/5/1997 7:01:00 PM
From: Staff	Respond to of 94695

James .. you saw something most don't. Good job as per your post: >>>It's called an inverted yield curve and is generally regarded as TROUBLE. I believe (but I'm not sure and don't have references here) that the last time this happened was back in the '70s.<< That's what it is called and but it does not necessarily mean trouble but it does mean there are temporary imballances in the system but not a threat per say. The Fed can adjust for it if it becomes a problem. Back in the early 80's it was common place for the fed to add liquidity to the system threw aggressive system repo's that stabilized the system via flooding the market with short term money availability.. As I say... his happened quite a bit back in 83 & 84 with regularity. It was common place for the 30 year long bond to trade 2 basis points one way or the other based on fluctuations due to these imbalances within the M1 and M2 money supply numbers each week. It was a completely different market back then but what you see as of late brings back memories of old. there is a huge movement of capital within the markets right now and that I would say is the single most reason your seeing these imbalances acure. If your a good hedge market player... its a good opportunity to make a few denero right now in my opinion. Good post!....