To: craig crawford who wrote (11692 ) 12/5/1997 11:01:00 PM From: Jeff Briley Respond to of 45548
Craig, Excellent analysis... was going to work through that myself tonight, but you saved me some time. For those of you who are saying that "the earnings announcement is built into the price", I see it differently. COMS was in the $35 range before this announcement was even made. Then the announcement came and the stock got shorted to the max. I know that the shorts came in hard and heavy, because there were no shares left to short the day after the announcement (tried through several brokers) . As most of you know, short sellers are usually much more short term focused than longs in general. Thus, when the stock gapped down huge all of the shorts started covering and gave it a "short squeeze" right back up to where it started. The announcement had no net effect. Then we had today where some "fluff" news came out. Yes, I consider it fluff news because it's still the same company today as it was yesterday. Everything said about COMS today was already known. This coupled with a strong market gave it some upward momentum. For those of you who have CNBC on every day in their office --- How many times have we heard Joe Kernan talk about a stock tanking after they release earnings after they had already pre-warned weeks before?? Joe always says, "I don't get it, this happens every time. The company pre-warned this was coming." Let me pose this question... If they were releasing earnings tomorrow, would you have sold today?? That is why this one should trend down until earnings. This warning was huge!! They're gonna show a small profit?? That's nuts!! If you really want to go long, buy this one in January. Jeff