Thanks for the input Maxwell. Here's something of interest...
1) SVGI just purchased a lense company to push DUV sales etc..
Message 2892212
2) Forbes article on next generation technology.
forbes.com
3) Dow Jones 9/25/97....
Strong Demand Seen Growing Even More
But knowing for sure whether technical problems have cropped up is difficult. Stepper makers are careful not to let too much information escape as they debug their machines in pre-production tests. They fear the information could end up in the hands of competitors.
This is especially true as Nikon and Canon find themselves competing against higher quality machines from Dutch-based ASm Lithography Holding N.V. (ASMLF), also a Cymer customer, one industry executive said.
Canon and Nikon have debugging to do, but the roll out of the technology is going as expected, Hutcheson said. Industry sources say the most visible problem seems to be a complex interface Nikon has been working on to better coordinate the function of the laser and stepper.
At the same time, demand remains strong. And it is expected to get stronger. VLSI expects sales of deep ultraviolet steppers to climb from $459 million in 1996 to $1.366 billion this year and to $5.059 billion in 1998. Projections for 2000 show the market at $8.044 billion.
Still, Cymer's third quarter is not without risk. The order push out in early September caused the company to lose time refitting the products for other buyers, Akins said. That has left it racing to close business by the end of September.
All the controversy has led Cymer stock on a downward path through most of September. Today, the shares closed at 30, down 1 15/16.
4) Morgan Stanley Report 10/24/97..
-If we receive indications that the market can accelerate beyond our expectations (e.g., above 475 steppers in 1998), which would alleviate a potential excess of laser inventory at the stepper manufacturer level that we believe is currrently building, we would then revise
our model upward and upgrade Cymer. That scenario would be based on our opinion of Cymer's substantial long-term competitive advantages and the major opportunity facing the company over the long-run. Still it is probably inevitable that the company will lose some share over time.
--In our last report, we indicated that some of Cymer's customers were upset with Cymer's field service capabilities. In F3Q97, Cymer added 40 people to its after market operations, which now stands at 164. In the conference call yesterday, Cymer's management indicated that chip maker satisfaction with its field service is high. They also stated in the call, and we concur, that Cymer is the only excimer laser supplier to the photolithography industry that is currently building a global service infrastructure. This is important because chip makers that migrate to competitors will likely experience service and support growing pains again.
--In summary, we believe the DUV photolithography market is one of the fastest growing and most important markets in the semiconductor capital equipment industry. Within that market, Cymer is the purest play on that potential growth. We believe Cymer's long term future prospects are outstanding. Unfortunately we believe the market will likely go through some initial ramp issues that could negatively impact Cymer's near-term outlook. Whether we are wrong or not on the near-term outlook, we look forward to positively recommending Cymer again at an appropriate time in the future.
5) Comments from CYMER - CEO...
Cymer Inc. Chief Executive Rebuts Rumors of Troubles
SAN DIEGO, Calif., Nov. 4 (North County Times/KRTBN)--Cymer Inc. has greatly increased its capacity to make lasers used in computer-chip manufacturing and will continue to dominate the market, company officials said Monday at the American Electronics Association conference here.
Cymer can now make 1,000 deep-ultraviolet lasers a year, and has assembled a global support staff to help customers use the devices, Cymer's President and CEO Robert Atkins said Monday. Cymer's market share is 80 percent, he said.
"We are the semiconductor industry's technology of choice," Atkins said.
"The laser is probably the single largest value-added element in the (chip-making machine,)" Atkins said. Cymer's customers have not reported any unusual difficulty in putting the lasers to use, Atkins said.
"Is it difficult to manufacture deep UV steppers and scanners? You bet, " Atkins said. "Do all of our customers face difficulties and challenges? You bet.
"The real question is, how fast can they overcome those, and are those problems out of the ordinary, beyond what would be expected in ushering in a new technology like this," he said. "We continue to maintain that no, that all those problems and challenges are all well within what is to be expected."
"This is leading-edge technology that's now being introduced into the fab (chip factory). It's been rushed in quickly at the demand of the chip makers, and everyone's getting the bugs out," said William A.
Angus, III, Cymer senior vice president and chief financial officer. Cymer's technology and market potential is strong, said Carl Johnson, president of Infrastructure, a semiconductor industry research based in Irving, Texas.
"With the industry's transitioning to a smaller feature size, this plays into their hand," Johnson said. "They have been somewhat constrained by the ability to hire qualified engineering and support staff. I think they're getting that under control right now, and the next couple of years should be pretty interesting."
Demand from Cymer's immediate customers is also strong, Johnson said.
"I've talked to a couple of the DUV stepper manufacturers here, and their business seems to be doing pretty well. That plays into the hands of Cymer, because they supply the lasers."
6) Article explaining different technologies..
sciencenews.org
7) DUV Stepper test method wins Japanese patent
techweb.cmp.com
8) Comments by INFRASTRUCTURE from the AEA conference
Cymer's sessions at AEA were literally packed. Everyone wanted to know if it was time to step up to the plate. We think it will be a while before the final chapter is written. Clearly, the Japanese would love to have an excimer laser supplier on their home turf. Having said this, it will take some time before Komatsu is capable of producing enough or a high enough quality laser to impact Cymer's market share. Cymer claims to have on their staff 60 percent of the world's mind-share for excimer laser technology. For the first nine months of 1997 the company shipped 321 excimer lasers, 124 of these were shipped in the last quarter! According to Cymer's management, they now have the capacity to produce 1,000 excimer lasers over the next twelve months. 80 percent of this production is generated through outsourcing. Next generation technology, using an ArF excimer laser, has already been delivered for research and development purposes. Cymer expects Nikon to deliver 70 to 80 DUV scanners in the first
quarter of 1998.
*** Note correction that Nikon would deliver steppers NOT scanners.
(IF CYMER'S SAYING NIKON IS EXPECTED TO DELIVER 70-80 STEPPERS IN THE FIRST Q OF 1998. (70-80 x 4Q = 280-320 units with no sequential growth.
>>>MORGAN STANLEY SAID ON 10/24... "--Further more, we believe a bottom-up summation of stepper supplier DUV shipment forecasts for 1998 yields a solution in excess of 600 systems (ASML 150, Canon 150, Nikon 275-300, SVG 25-50 Micrascan III's). In fact this sums to 600-650 systems, which is significantly more than we believe the market can produce and ship. In light of these aggressive internal forecasts, we are concerned that some suppliers may be purchasing
lasers in anticipation of higher than possible shipment levels over the next five quarters."
NIKON at 275-300 units for 1998. If NIKON DOES? order 70-80 laser in the 1st Q they would be on track for 280-320 units in 1998 with no sequential growth per Q. With 10% sequential growth Nikon would produce 70, 77, 85 + 94 units = 326 units. At 80 laser with 10% the number is 371. How much is CYMER - how much competition?
If Cymer is going to report strong sales in Jan 98 (4th Q), word will probably leak out and the price will move up slightly beforehand. I would expect EVERYONE TO UPGRADE shortly after. This is assuming that Cymer says sales are Strong, Backlog is strong and future growth looks strong.
Aloha |
